Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ensemble forecasts for Munich's highest temperature on April 14, with implied probabilities peaking at 12°C (26%), 13°C (23.5%), and 11°C (19.5%). Latest DWD observations on April 12 morning show 8°C under northerly winds and 71% humidity, signaling a cooling shift after above-average warmth on prior days, while short-term guidance projects late-day peaks near 14°C amid variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some favor stratiform overcast limiting diurnal heating to 11-12°C, others allow partial clearing for 13°C—driven by upper-level trough progression and cold air advection potential. New model runs expected overnight could refine odds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Munich on April 14?
Highest temperature in Munich on April 14?
12°C 26%
11°C 25%
13°C 23%
9°C 8.1%
最新
最新
2026-04-14
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
8%
10°C
8%
11°C
27%
12°C
26%
13°C
16%
14°C
8%
15°C or higher
5%
12°C 26%
11°C 25%
13°C 23%
9°C 8.1%
最新
最新
2026-04-14
5°C or below
$147 交易量
1%
6°C
$113 交易量
1%
7°C
$109 交易量
1%
8°C
$239 交易量
1%
9°C
$77 交易量
8%
10°C
$141 交易量
8%
11°C
$88 交易量
27%
12°C
$119 交易量
26%
13°C
$54 交易量
16%
14°C
$47 交易量
8%
15°C or higher
$26 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ensemble forecasts for Munich's highest temperature on April 14, with implied probabilities peaking at 12°C (26%), 13°C (23.5%), and 11°C (19.5%). Latest DWD observations on April 12 morning show 8°C under northerly winds and 71% humidity, signaling a cooling shift after above-average warmth on prior days, while short-term guidance projects late-day peaks near 14°C amid variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some favor stratiform overcast limiting diurnal heating to 11-12°C, others allow partial clearing for 13°C—driven by upper-level trough progression and cold air advection potential. New model runs expected overnight could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$1,162結束日期
2026-04-14市場開放時間
Apr 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ensemble forecasts for Munich's highest temperature on April 14, with implied probabilities peaking at 12°C (26%), 13°C (23.5%), and 11°C (19.5%). Latest DWD observations on April 12 morning show 8°C under northerly winds and 71% humidity, signaling a cooling shift after above-average warmth on prior days, while short-term guidance projects late-day peaks near 14°C amid variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some favor stratiform overcast limiting diurnal heating to 11-12°C, others allow partial clearing for 13°C—driven by upper-level trough progression and cold air advection potential. New model runs expected overnight could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,162結束日期
2026-04-14市場開放時間
Apr 12, 2026, 12:07 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ensemble forecasts for Munich's highest temperature on April 14, with implied probabilities peaking at 12°C (26%), 13°C (23.5%), and 11°C (19.5%). Latest DWD observations on April 12 morning show 8°C under northerly winds and 71% humidity, signaling a cooling shift after above-average warmth on prior days, while short-term guidance projects late-day peaks near 14°C amid variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include model spread in ECMWF and GFS ensembles—some favor stratiform overcast limiting diurnal heating to 11-12°C, others allow partial clearing for 13°C—driven by upper-level trough progression and cold air advection potential. New model runs expected overnight could refine odds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions