Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or below in Shanghai on April 12, driven by converging forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting daytime maxima of 16-17°C amid persistent light rain and thick cloud cover. Today's conditions—showers and a high near 16°C—reflect post-frontal cooling that limits solar heating, keeping peaks below the April climatological average of 18-19°C. While overcast skies dominate, brief clearing could nudge toward 18°C (11% odds), but model agreement underscores low risk for higher outcomes. Official station observations will confirm resolution tomorrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 12?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 12?
17°C or below 87.6%
18°C 12%
19°C 2.4%
20°C <1%
$68,072 交易量
$68,072 交易量
17°C or below
88%
18°C
12%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
17°C or below 87.6%
18°C 12%
19°C 2.4%
20°C <1%
$68,072 交易量
$68,072 交易量
17°C or below
88%
18°C
12%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 8, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or below in Shanghai on April 12, driven by converging forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting daytime maxima of 16-17°C amid persistent light rain and thick cloud cover. Today's conditions—showers and a high near 16°C—reflect post-frontal cooling that limits solar heating, keeping peaks below the April climatological average of 18-19°C. While overcast skies dominate, brief clearing could nudge toward 18°C (11% odds), but model agreement underscores low risk for higher outcomes. Official station observations will confirm resolution tomorrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions