Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Munich Airport's highest temperature on April 13 clustering around 15-16°C amid overcast conditions and possible late sprinkles, yielding a robust 98.8% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher as traders price in near-unanimous model consensus on mild southerly air flow and typical mid-April highs averaging 13-14°C historically. This positioning stems from the past 48 hours' stable upper-level patterns favoring warm advection over Central Europe, with minimal ensemble spread indicating low uncertainty at this range. Realistic challenges include an abrupt northerly cold front or thickened cloud deck reducing solar insolation, though current guidance shows scant support for sub-11°C outcomes; watch DWD's final 12-hour updates and EDDM METAR observations for confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月13日慕尼黑最高溫度?
4月13日慕尼黑最高溫度?
11°C或以上 98.7%
10°C <1%
7°C <1%
9°C <1%
$27,120 交易量
$27,120 交易量
1°C或以下
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C或以上
99%
11°C或以上 98.7%
10°C <1%
7°C <1%
9°C <1%
$27,120 交易量
$27,120 交易量
1°C或以下
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C或以上
99%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts project Munich Airport's highest temperature on April 13 clustering around 15-16°C amid overcast conditions and possible late sprinkles, yielding a robust 98.8% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher as traders price in near-unanimous model consensus on mild southerly air flow and typical mid-April highs averaging 13-14°C historically. This positioning stems from the past 48 hours' stable upper-level patterns favoring warm advection over Central Europe, with minimal ensemble spread indicating low uncertainty at this range. Realistic challenges include an abrupt northerly cold front or thickened cloud deck reducing solar insolation, though current guidance shows scant support for sub-11°C outcomes; watch DWD's final 12-hour updates and EDDM METAR observations for confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions