Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts, which project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 14 at 21°C amid cloudy conditions and a 30% precipitation chance (reliability C), closely aligning with the 28.5% implied probability for 21°C while recent warmer-than-average days—such as April 11's resolved 25°C high and April 12's leading 22°C outlook—bolster 34% odds for 22°C and 32% for 23°C. Spring atmospheric patterns, including variable Pacific high-pressure influence and urban heat effects, differentiate outcomes, with cloud cover potentially capping solar heating below 23°C or brief clearing pushing toward 24°C (11%). Daily JMA updates through April 13 will clarify model runs amid above-seasonal trends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 14?
23°C 31%
21°C 30%
22°C 29%
24°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-04-14
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
3%
20°C
11%
21°C
30%
22°C
29%
23°C
31%
24°C
11%
25°C or higher
4%
23°C 31%
21°C 30%
22°C 29%
24°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-04-14
15°C or below
$417 交易量
<1%
16°C
$359 交易量
<1%
17°C
$190 交易量
1%
18°C
$138 交易量
2%
19°C
$196 交易量
3%
20°C
$118 交易量
11%
21°C
$148 交易量
30%
22°C
$115 交易量
29%
23°C
$100 交易量
31%
24°C
$110 交易量
11%
25°C or higher
$99 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts, which project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 14 at 21°C amid cloudy conditions and a 30% precipitation chance (reliability C), closely aligning with the 28.5% implied probability for 21°C while recent warmer-than-average days—such as April 11's resolved 25°C high and April 12's leading 22°C outlook—bolster 34% odds for 22°C and 32% for 23°C. Spring atmospheric patterns, including variable Pacific high-pressure influence and urban heat effects, differentiate outcomes, with cloud cover potentially capping solar heating below 23°C or brief clearing pushing toward 24°C (11%). Daily JMA updates through April 13 will clarify model runs amid above-seasonal trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 12, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
交易量
$1,991結束日期
2026-04-14市場開放時間
Apr 12, 2026, 12:37 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts, which project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 14 at 21°C amid cloudy conditions and a 30% precipitation chance (reliability C), closely aligning with the 28.5% implied probability for 21°C while recent warmer-than-average days—such as April 11's resolved 25°C high and April 12's leading 22°C outlook—bolster 34% odds for 22°C and 32% for 23°C. Spring atmospheric patterns, including variable Pacific high-pressure influence and urban heat effects, differentiate outcomes, with cloud cover potentially capping solar heating below 23°C or brief clearing pushing toward 24°C (11%). Daily JMA updates through April 13 will clarify model runs amid above-seasonal trends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,991結束日期
2026-04-14市場開放時間
Apr 12, 2026, 12:37 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts, which project Tokyo's highest temperature on April 14 at 21°C amid cloudy conditions and a 30% precipitation chance (reliability C), closely aligning with the 28.5% implied probability for 21°C while recent warmer-than-average days—such as April 11's resolved 25°C high and April 12's leading 22°C outlook—bolster 34% odds for 22°C and 32% for 23°C. Spring atmospheric patterns, including variable Pacific high-pressure influence and urban heat effects, differentiate outcomes, with cloud cover potentially capping solar heating below 23°C or brief clearing pushing toward 24°C (11%). Daily JMA updates through April 13 will clarify model runs amid above-seasonal trends.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions