Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models point to a high near 73°F at LaGuardia Airport on April 13, under a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence warming and ample sunshine, with light southerly winds aiding warm air advection from the southwest. This trader consensus—reflected in closely matched implied probabilities for 72-73°F (27%), 74-75°F (22%), and 76-77°F (21%)—stems from the past 24 hours' model runs showing consistent above-normal temperatures (seasonal average ~62°F), amid a broader warm spring pattern noted in long-range outlooks. Differentiating factors include ECMWF's slightly stronger ridge versus GFS's cooler marine stratus risk, plus boundary layer mixing efficiency; genuine uncertainty persists around peak heating timing. Watch 12Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refinements ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於紐約市4月13日的最高溫度?
紐約市4月13日的最高溫度?
72-73°F 25.3%
74-75°F 22%
76-77°F 20.7%
78-79°F 12.5%
$19,028 交易量
$19,028 交易量
61°F或以下
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
13%
80°F或更高
10%
72-73°F 25.3%
74-75°F 22%
76-77°F 20.7%
78-79°F 12.5%
$19,028 交易量
$19,028 交易量
61°F或以下
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
13%
80°F或更高
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models point to a high near 73°F at LaGuardia Airport on April 13, under a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence warming and ample sunshine, with light southerly winds aiding warm air advection from the southwest. This trader consensus—reflected in closely matched implied probabilities for 72-73°F (27%), 74-75°F (22%), and 76-77°F (21%)—stems from the past 24 hours' model runs showing consistent above-normal temperatures (seasonal average ~62°F), amid a broader warm spring pattern noted in long-range outlooks. Differentiating factors include ECMWF's slightly stronger ridge versus GFS's cooler marine stratus risk, plus boundary layer mixing efficiency; genuine uncertainty persists around peak heating timing. Watch 12Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refinements ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions