Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 19–21°C for Seoul's highest temperature on April 15, driven by the latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) aviation forecast indicating a daytime maximum of 19°C under clear skies, with min-max ensembles from GFS and ECMWF models showing minor spreads up to 20–21°C due to varying predictions of peak solar heating. Spring continental high-pressure systems promote sunny conditions favorable for insolation-driven warming, but light winds and potential high-cloud intrusions could cap highs below 21°C, aligning with mid-April climatological averages near 18°C. Key differentiators include subtle model divergences on boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects at official observation sites; final resolution hinges on hourly KMA data releases tomorrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Seoul on April 15?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 15?
21°C or higher 29.5%
20°C 28%
19°C 27%
18°C 15%
$185,977 交易量
$185,977 交易量
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
15%
19°C
27%
20°C
28%
21°C or higher
30%
21°C or higher 29.5%
20°C 28%
19°C 27%
18°C 15%
$185,977 交易量
$185,977 交易量
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
15%
19°C
27%
20°C
28%
21°C or higher
30%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 19–21°C for Seoul's highest temperature on April 15, driven by the latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) aviation forecast indicating a daytime maximum of 19°C under clear skies, with min-max ensembles from GFS and ECMWF models showing minor spreads up to 20–21°C due to varying predictions of peak solar heating. Spring continental high-pressure systems promote sunny conditions favorable for insolation-driven warming, but light winds and potential high-cloud intrusions could cap highs below 21°C, aligning with mid-April climatological averages near 18°C. Key differentiators include subtle model divergences on boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects at official observation sites; final resolution hinges on hourly KMA data releases tomorrow.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions