Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 5°C (25.5%) and 6°C (27.5%) as Moscow's highest temperatures on April 19, driven by divergence in short-range GFS and ECMWF model runs projecting daytime highs of 3–8°C amid uncertain cloud cover that could suppress solar heating. Recent observations show Moscow highs lingering around 6–7°C over the past 48 hours under partly cloudy skies, with forecasts indicating patchy rain and overcast conditions persisting into Saturday, tilting odds toward the lower end while clearer breaks might enable brief spikes to 7–8°C. Key differentiators include cloud thickness—denser layers favor 4–5°C outcomes, per model ensembles—and light winds limiting mixing. New GFS/ECMWF updates every 6–12 hours, alongside Russian Hydrometeorological Center bulletins, will sharpen these probabilities before resolution at official stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Moscow on April 19?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 19?
6°C 28%
5°C 26%
4°C 14%
7°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-19
-1°C or below
1%
0°C
1%
1°C
1%
2°C
5%
3°C
3%
4°C
14%
5°C
26%
6°C
28%
7°C
13%
8°C
8%
9°C or higher
4%
6°C 28%
5°C 26%
4°C 14%
7°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-19
-1°C or below
$470 交易量
1%
0°C
$286 交易量
1%
1°C
$337 交易量
1%
2°C
$306 交易量
5%
3°C
$416 交易量
3%
4°C
$68 交易量
14%
5°C
$26 交易量
26%
6°C
$9 交易量
28%
7°C
$425 交易量
13%
8°C
$611 交易量
8%
9°C or higher
$1,985 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 5°C (25.5%) and 6°C (27.5%) as Moscow's highest temperatures on April 19, driven by divergence in short-range GFS and ECMWF model runs projecting daytime highs of 3–8°C amid uncertain cloud cover that could suppress solar heating. Recent observations show Moscow highs lingering around 6–7°C over the past 48 hours under partly cloudy skies, with forecasts indicating patchy rain and overcast conditions persisting into Saturday, tilting odds toward the lower end while clearer breaks might enable brief spikes to 7–8°C. Key differentiators include cloud thickness—denser layers favor 4–5°C outcomes, per model ensembles—and light winds limiting mixing. New GFS/ECMWF updates every 6–12 hours, alongside Russian Hydrometeorological Center bulletins, will sharpen these probabilities before resolution at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
交易量
$4,900結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 5°C (25.5%) and 6°C (27.5%) as Moscow's highest temperatures on April 19, driven by divergence in short-range GFS and ECMWF model runs projecting daytime highs of 3–8°C amid uncertain cloud cover that could suppress solar heating. Recent observations show Moscow highs lingering around 6–7°C over the past 48 hours under partly cloudy skies, with forecasts indicating patchy rain and overcast conditions persisting into Saturday, tilting odds toward the lower end while clearer breaks might enable brief spikes to 7–8°C. Key differentiators include cloud thickness—denser layers favor 4–5°C outcomes, per model ensembles—and light winds limiting mixing. New GFS/ECMWF updates every 6–12 hours, alongside Russian Hydrometeorological Center bulletins, will sharpen these probabilities before resolution at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$4,900結束日期
2026-04-19市場開放時間
Apr 17, 2026, 12:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 5°C (25.5%) and 6°C (27.5%) as Moscow's highest temperatures on April 19, driven by divergence in short-range GFS and ECMWF model runs projecting daytime highs of 3–8°C amid uncertain cloud cover that could suppress solar heating. Recent observations show Moscow highs lingering around 6–7°C over the past 48 hours under partly cloudy skies, with forecasts indicating patchy rain and overcast conditions persisting into Saturday, tilting odds toward the lower end while clearer breaks might enable brief spikes to 7–8°C. Key differentiators include cloud thickness—denser layers favor 4–5°C outcomes, per model ensembles—and light winds limiting mixing. New GFS/ECMWF updates every 6–12 hours, alongside Russian Hydrometeorological Center bulletins, will sharpen these probabilities before resolution at official stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions