Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo today, driven by official observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's automated station at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which recorded a peak of precisely 22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms, where Tokyo's average daily highs hover around 19–20°C, influenced by post-cherry blossom seasonal warming and Pacific high-pressure steering patterns limiting further intensification. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this include a rare post-sunset measurement revision or data anomaly from equipment calibration—both improbable given JMA's rigorous hourly verification protocols—but traders await final daily summary for market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 20?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 20?
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$169,507 交易量
$169,507 交易量
2026-04-20
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$169,507 交易量
$169,507 交易量
2026-04-20
14°C or below
$1,618 交易量
No
15°C
$1,889 交易量
No
16°C
$1,996 交易量
No
17°C
$2,259 交易量
No
18°C
$3,936 交易量
No
19°C
$8,259 交易量
No
20°C
$9,226 交易量
No
21°C
$12,335 交易量
No
22°C
$49,070 交易量
Yes
23°C
$30,822 交易量
No
24°C or higher
$48,098 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo today, driven by official observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's automated station at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which recorded a peak of precisely 22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms, where Tokyo's average daily highs hover around 19–20°C, influenced by post-cherry blossom seasonal warming and Pacific high-pressure steering patterns limiting further intensification. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this include a rare post-sunset measurement revision or data anomaly from equipment calibration—both improbable given JMA's rigorous hourly verification protocols—but traders await final daily summary for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 18, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
交易量
$169,507結束日期
2026-04-20市場開放時間
Apr 18, 2026, 12:21 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo today, driven by official observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's automated station at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which recorded a peak of precisely 22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms, where Tokyo's average daily highs hover around 19–20°C, influenced by post-cherry blossom seasonal warming and Pacific high-pressure steering patterns limiting further intensification. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this include a rare post-sunset measurement revision or data anomaly from equipment calibration—both improbable given JMA's rigorous hourly verification protocols—but traders await final daily summary for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$169,507結束日期
2026-04-20市場開放時間
Apr 18, 2026, 12:21 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo today, driven by official observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's automated station at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which recorded a peak of precisely 22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms, where Tokyo's average daily highs hover around 19–20°C, influenced by post-cherry blossom seasonal warming and Pacific high-pressure steering patterns limiting further intensification. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this include a rare post-sunset measurement revision or data anomaly from equipment calibration—both improbable given JMA's rigorous hourly verification protocols—but traders await final daily summary for market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions