The closely matched market odds around 18–19°C capture genuine short-range forecast uncertainty for Beijing’s minimum temperature on August 31, driven by ensemble spread in global and regional models. Late-summer synoptic patterns, including possible weak frontal passages and variable high-pressure ridging, produce typical diurnal ranges of 8–12°C under clear or partly cloudy conditions, while urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer moisture modulate overnight lows. Historical late-August climatology shows mean minima near 20°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, and current model consensus clusters within this envelope but diverges on exact cloud cover and wind speeds. Fresh CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will likely tighten or shift the distribution as resolution criteria approach.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日北京最低溫度？
8月31日北京最低溫度？
16°C 49%
22°C 49%
19°C 30%
18°C 29%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
13°C or below
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
20%
16°C
49%
17°C
19%
18°C
29%
19°C
30%
20°C
22%
21°C
22%
22°C
49%
23°C or higher
2%
16°C 49%
22°C 49%
19°C 30%
18°C 29%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
13°C or below
$0 交易量
1%
14°C
$0 交易量
4%
15°C
$0 交易量
20%
16°C
$0 交易量
49%
17°C
$0 交易量
19%
18°C
$0 交易量
29%
19°C
$0 交易量
30%
20°C
$0 交易量
22%
21°C
$0 交易量
22%
22°C
$0 交易量
49%
23°C or higher
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 18–19°C capture genuine short-range forecast uncertainty for Beijing’s minimum temperature on August 31, driven by ensemble spread in global and regional models. Late-summer synoptic patterns, including possible weak frontal passages and variable high-pressure ridging, produce typical diurnal ranges of 8–12°C under clear or partly cloudy conditions, while urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer moisture modulate overnight lows. Historical late-August climatology shows mean minima near 20°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, and current model consensus clusters within this envelope but diverges on exact cloud cover and wind speeds. Fresh CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will likely tighten or shift the distribution as resolution criteria approach.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 18–19°C capture genuine short-range forecast uncertainty for Beijing’s minimum temperature on August 31, driven by ensemble spread in global and regional models. Late-summer synoptic patterns, including possible weak frontal passages and variable high-pressure ridging, produce typical diurnal ranges of 8–12°C under clear or partly cloudy conditions, while urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer moisture modulate overnight lows. Historical late-August climatology shows mean minima near 20°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, and current model consensus clusters within this envelope but diverges on exact cloud cover and wind speeds. Fresh CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will likely tighten or shift the distribution as resolution criteria approach.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThe closely matched market odds around 18–19°C capture genuine short-range forecast uncertainty for Beijing’s minimum temperature on August 31, driven by ensemble spread in global and regional models. Late-summer synoptic patterns, including possible weak frontal passages and variable high-pressure ridging, produce typical diurnal ranges of 8–12°C under clear or partly cloudy conditions, while urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer moisture modulate overnight lows. Historical late-August climatology shows mean minima near 20°C with a standard deviation of roughly 2–3°C, and current model consensus clusters within this envelope but diverges on exact cloud cover and wind speeds. Fresh CMA and ECMWF runs expected within 24 hours will likely tighten or shift the distribution as resolution criteria approach.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions