Current forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting numerical models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds will produce a daily minimum of 15 °C in Madrid. This aligns with the market’s 93 % implied probability for exactly 15 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around that value and no strong warm-air advection expected before dawn. Historical August minima average near 18.5 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended cooler. The outcome could shift only if persistent low cloud or a stronger nocturnal wind develops, both of which remain low-probability events per the latest guidance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日馬德裏最低氣溫？
8月26日馬德裏最低氣溫？
15°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$4,340 交易量
$4,340 交易量
2026-08-26
14°C or below
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$4,340 交易量
$4,340 交易量
2026-08-26
14°C or below
$138 交易量
No
15°C
$276 交易量
Yes
16°C
$505 交易量
No
17°C
$270 交易量
No
18°C
$279 交易量
No
19°C
$365 交易量
No
20°C
$1,475 交易量
No
21°C
$500 交易量
No
22°C
$70 交易量
No
23°C
$70 交易量
No
24°C or higher
$390 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting numerical models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds will produce a daily minimum of 15 °C in Madrid. This aligns with the market’s 93 % implied probability for exactly 15 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around that value and no strong warm-air advection expected before dawn. Historical August minima average near 18.5 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended cooler. The outcome could shift only if persistent low cloud or a stronger nocturnal wind develops, both of which remain low-probability events per the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$4,340結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting numerical models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds will produce a daily minimum of 15 °C in Madrid. This aligns with the market’s 93 % implied probability for exactly 15 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around that value and no strong warm-air advection expected before dawn. Historical August minima average near 18.5 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended cooler. The outcome could shift only if persistent low cloud or a stronger nocturnal wind develops, both of which remain low-probability events per the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,340結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Current forecasts from Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and supporting numerical models indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southwest winds will produce a daily minimum of 15 °C in Madrid. This aligns with the market’s 93 % implied probability for exactly 15 °C, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around that value and no strong warm-air advection expected before dawn. Historical August minima average near 18.5 °C, but recent model runs have consistently trended cooler. The outcome could shift only if persistent low cloud or a stronger nocturnal wind develops, both of which remain low-probability events per the latest guidance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions