Texas's 20th congressional district, anchored in urban San Antonio with a majority-Hispanic electorate and Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, has consistently delivered Democratic margins exceeding 15 points in recent cycles, including strong showings for Kamala Harris and state-level Democrats in 2024. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with over 88 percent support and faces a Republican challenger with limited fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the absence of redistricting changes or notable controversies in the district, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-term voting patterns or a major late-cycle disruption such as a candidate withdrawal or national political shock.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$27,061 交易量
$27,061 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
6%
$27,061 交易量
$27,061 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$12,368 交易量
95%
共和黨
$14,693 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 20th congressional district, anchored in urban San Antonio with a majority-Hispanic electorate and Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, has consistently delivered Democratic margins exceeding 15 points in recent cycles, including strong showings for Kamala Harris and state-level Democrats in 2024. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with over 88 percent support and faces a Republican challenger with limited fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the absence of redistricting changes or notable controversies in the district, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-term voting patterns or a major late-cycle disruption such as a candidate withdrawal or national political shock.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$27,061結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 20th congressional district, anchored in urban San Antonio with a majority-Hispanic electorate and Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, has consistently delivered Democratic margins exceeding 15 points in recent cycles, including strong showings for Kamala Harris and state-level Democrats in 2024. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with over 88 percent support and faces a Republican challenger with limited fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the absence of redistricting changes or notable controversies in the district, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-term voting patterns or a major late-cycle disruption such as a candidate withdrawal or national political shock.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$27,061結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETTexas's 20th congressional district, anchored in urban San Antonio with a majority-Hispanic electorate and Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, has consistently delivered Democratic margins exceeding 15 points in recent cycles, including strong showings for Kamala Harris and state-level Democrats in 2024. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with over 88 percent support and faces a Republican challenger with limited fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the absence of redistricting changes or notable controversies in the district, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-term voting patterns or a major late-cycle disruption such as a candidate withdrawal or national political shock.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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