Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a shift to cloudy, rainy conditions on September 15 that will suppress daytime heating and allow overnight radiative cooling, positioning the minimum temperature near 22–24°C. Persistent southerly flow earlier in the week maintained warmer baselines, but an approaching trough and associated precipitation—expected to reach 60–80% probability—now favor lower readings around dawn. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range, with limited spread reflecting moderate model agreement on timing and moisture. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded at official Tokyo stations amid the unsettled pattern.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月15日东京最低气温？
9月15日东京最低气温？
23°C 39%
22°C 32%
24°C 23%
20°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
19°C或以下
14%
20°C
16%
21℃
7%
22°C
32%
23°C
39%
24°C
23%
25°C
9%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C或更高
2%
23°C 39%
22°C 32%
24°C 23%
20°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
19°C或以下
$10 交易量
14%
20°C
$30 交易量
16%
21℃
$31 交易量
7%
22°C
$237 交易量
32%
23°C
$125 交易量
39%
24°C
$331 交易量
23%
25°C
$31 交易量
9%
26°C
$10 交易量
2%
27°C
$10 交易量
2%
28°C
$10 交易量
2%
29°C或更高
$10 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a shift to cloudy, rainy conditions on September 15 that will suppress daytime heating and allow overnight radiative cooling, positioning the minimum temperature near 22–24°C. Persistent southerly flow earlier in the week maintained warmer baselines, but an approaching trough and associated precipitation—expected to reach 60–80% probability—now favor lower readings around dawn. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range, with limited spread reflecting moderate model agreement on timing and moisture. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded at official Tokyo stations amid the unsettled pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$836结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a shift to cloudy, rainy conditions on September 15 that will suppress daytime heating and allow overnight radiative cooling, positioning the minimum temperature near 22–24°C. Persistent southerly flow earlier in the week maintained warmer baselines, but an approaching trough and associated precipitation—expected to reach 60–80% probability—now favor lower readings around dawn. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range, with limited spread reflecting moderate model agreement on timing and moisture. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded at official Tokyo stations amid the unsettled pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$836结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETRecent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a shift to cloudy, rainy conditions on September 15 that will suppress daytime heating and allow overnight radiative cooling, positioning the minimum temperature near 22–24°C. Persistent southerly flow earlier in the week maintained warmer baselines, but an approaching trough and associated precipitation—expected to reach 60–80% probability—now favor lower readings around dawn. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering in this range, with limited spread reflecting moderate model agreement on timing and moisture. Traders appear to weigh these near-term updates heavily, as resolution hinges on the precise overnight low recorded at official Tokyo stations amid the unsettled pattern.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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