Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for New York City's Central Park high temperature on April 6, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around the mid-50s°F amid a cool Canadian air mass ushering in below-normal conditions—about 5-10°F cooler than the early April climatological normal of 57°F. The close contest between 56-57°F (26%) and 54-55°F (22.5%) stems from divergent model runs on cloud cover persistence, exact frontal timing, and northwest winds mixing cooler boundary layers, potentially capping peaks or allowing slight warm-up if skies clear midday. New 00Z/12Z updates from NOAA and ECMWF expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on April 6?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 6?
54-55°F 26%
56-57°F 26%
58-59°F 16%
52-53°F 15%
$11,523 Vol.
$11,523 Vol.
6 abr 2026
47°F or below
1%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
15%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
26%
58-59°F
16%
60-61°F
8%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
1%
66°F or higher
1%
54-55°F 26%
56-57°F 26%
58-59°F 16%
52-53°F 15%
$11,523 Vol.
$11,523 Vol.
6 abr 2026
47°F or below
$1,369 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$939 Vol.
2%
50-51°F
$800 Vol.
8%
52-53°F
$1,061 Vol.
15%
54-55°F
$1,086 Vol.
26%
56-57°F
$859 Vol.
26%
58-59°F
$678 Vol.
16%
60-61°F
$571 Vol.
8%
62-63°F
$1,187 Vol.
3%
64-65°F
$1,072 Vol.
1%
66°F or higher
$2,052 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for New York City's Central Park high temperature on April 6, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around the mid-50s°F amid a cool Canadian air mass ushering in below-normal conditions—about 5-10°F cooler than the early April climatological normal of 57°F. The close contest between 56-57°F (26%) and 54-55°F (22.5%) stems from divergent model runs on cloud cover persistence, exact frontal timing, and northwest winds mixing cooler boundary layers, potentially capping peaks or allowing slight warm-up if skies clear midday. New 00Z/12Z updates from NOAA and ECMWF expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volumen
$11,523Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for New York City's Central Park high temperature on April 6, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around the mid-50s°F amid a cool Canadian air mass ushering in below-normal conditions—about 5-10°F cooler than the early April climatological normal of 57°F. The close contest between 56-57°F (26%) and 54-55°F (22.5%) stems from divergent model runs on cloud cover persistence, exact frontal timing, and northwest winds mixing cooler boundary layers, potentially capping peaks or allowing slight warm-up if skies clear midday. New 00Z/12Z updates from NOAA and ECMWF expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$11,523Fecha de finalización
6 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for New York City's Central Park high temperature on April 6, with models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around the mid-50s°F amid a cool Canadian air mass ushering in below-normal conditions—about 5-10°F cooler than the early April climatological normal of 57°F. The close contest between 56-57°F (26%) and 54-55°F (22.5%) stems from divergent model runs on cloud cover persistence, exact frontal timing, and northwest winds mixing cooler boundary layers, potentially capping peaks or allowing slight warm-up if skies clear midday. New 00Z/12Z updates from NOAA and ECMWF expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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