Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 13 clustering around 14°C (32.5% market-implied odds), with nearby outcomes at 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (19.0%), aligning with early April climatological averages of 13.1°C daytime highs amid typical spring variability. Trader consensus reflects a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Central Europe following a week of mild, unsettled conditions without major cold outbreaks or heat waves. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing highs below 13°C, clear skies and southerly winds enabling 16°C+, and frontal passages risking cooler 11°C or lower; inherent model uncertainty persists two days out, with overnight updates from GFS and ECMWF runs poised to sharpen probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 13?
14°C 32%
13°C 23%
16°C 20%
15°C 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 abr 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
2%
12°C
10%
13°C
23%
14°C
32%
15°C
20%
16°C
17%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
3%
14°C 32%
13°C 23%
16°C 20%
15°C 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 abr 2026
8°C or below
$518 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$173 Vol.
2%
11°C
$351 Vol.
2%
12°C
$314 Vol.
10%
13°C
$149 Vol.
23%
14°C
$407 Vol.
32%
15°C
$452 Vol.
20%
16°C
$171 Vol.
17%
17°C
$233 Vol.
6%
18°C or higher
$238 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 13 clustering around 14°C (32.5% market-implied odds), with nearby outcomes at 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (19.0%), aligning with early April climatological averages of 13.1°C daytime highs amid typical spring variability. Trader consensus reflects a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Central Europe following a week of mild, unsettled conditions without major cold outbreaks or heat waves. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing highs below 13°C, clear skies and southerly winds enabling 16°C+, and frontal passages risking cooler 11°C or lower; inherent model uncertainty persists two days out, with overnight updates from GFS and ECMWF runs poised to sharpen probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 9, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volumen
$3,528Fecha de finalización
13 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 9, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 13 clustering around 14°C (32.5% market-implied odds), with nearby outcomes at 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (19.0%), aligning with early April climatological averages of 13.1°C daytime highs amid typical spring variability. Trader consensus reflects a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Central Europe following a week of mild, unsettled conditions without major cold outbreaks or heat waves. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing highs below 13°C, clear skies and southerly winds enabling 16°C+, and frontal passages risking cooler 11°C or lower; inherent model uncertainty persists two days out, with overnight updates from GFS and ECMWF runs poised to sharpen probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,528Fecha de finalización
13 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 9, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 13 clustering around 14°C (32.5% market-implied odds), with nearby outcomes at 13°C (22.5%) and 15°C (19.0%), aligning with early April climatological averages of 13.1°C daytime highs amid typical spring variability. Trader consensus reflects a high-pressure ridge stabilizing over Central Europe following a week of mild, unsettled conditions without major cold outbreaks or heat waves. Key variables include cloud cover suppressing highs below 13°C, clear skies and southerly winds enabling 16°C+, and frontal passages risking cooler 11°C or lower; inherent model uncertainty persists two days out, with overnight updates from GFS and ECMWF runs poised to sharpen probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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