Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 38.5% implied probability for a 14°C high in Warsaw today, stems from ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 13-15°C amid partial cloud cover and weak northerly winds moderating daytime heating from overnight lows near 5°C. IMGW's latest synoptic update projects a cooler 12°C maximum under persistent Arctic air mass influence on the high-pressure periphery, explaining the 20.5% odds on 13°C and lower probabilities for extremes. Recent observations show rebound from 10-11°C maxima on April 10, aligning with mid-April climatological highs of 13.1°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Hourly IMGW data through afternoon will clarify resolution, as shower development could cap peaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 12?
14°C 42%
15°C or higher 34%
13°C 23%
12°C 4.4%
$31,921 Vol.
$31,921 Vol.
12 abr 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
23%
14°C
42%
15°C or higher
34%
14°C 42%
15°C or higher 34%
13°C 23%
12°C 4.4%
$31,921 Vol.
$31,921 Vol.
12 abr 2026
5°C or below
$1,702 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,547 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,945 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,050 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$3,998 Vol.
1%
11°C
$3,811 Vol.
1%
12°C
$5,683 Vol.
4%
13°C
$2,734 Vol.
23%
14°C
$3,065 Vol.
42%
15°C or higher
$3,878 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 38.5% implied probability for a 14°C high in Warsaw today, stems from ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 13-15°C amid partial cloud cover and weak northerly winds moderating daytime heating from overnight lows near 5°C. IMGW's latest synoptic update projects a cooler 12°C maximum under persistent Arctic air mass influence on the high-pressure periphery, explaining the 20.5% odds on 13°C and lower probabilities for extremes. Recent observations show rebound from 10-11°C maxima on April 10, aligning with mid-April climatological highs of 13.1°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Hourly IMGW data through afternoon will clarify resolution, as shower development could cap peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$31,921Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 38.5% implied probability for a 14°C high in Warsaw today, stems from ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 13-15°C amid partial cloud cover and weak northerly winds moderating daytime heating from overnight lows near 5°C. IMGW's latest synoptic update projects a cooler 12°C maximum under persistent Arctic air mass influence on the high-pressure periphery, explaining the 20.5% odds on 13°C and lower probabilities for extremes. Recent observations show rebound from 10-11°C maxima on April 10, aligning with mid-April climatological highs of 13.1°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Hourly IMGW data through afternoon will clarify resolution, as shower development could cap peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$31,921Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 38.5% implied probability for a 14°C high in Warsaw today, stems from ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 13-15°C amid partial cloud cover and weak northerly winds moderating daytime heating from overnight lows near 5°C. IMGW's latest synoptic update projects a cooler 12°C maximum under persistent Arctic air mass influence on the high-pressure periphery, explaining the 20.5% odds on 13°C and lower probabilities for extremes. Recent observations show rebound from 10-11°C maxima on April 10, aligning with mid-April climatological highs of 13.1°C at Warsaw Chopin Airport. Hourly IMGW data through afternoon will clarify resolution, as shower development could cap peaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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