Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 14°C (35%), 15°C (27%), and 16°C (25%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 12 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid an approaching Atlantic frontal boundary. Latest AEMET guidance indicates overcast skies with likely light rain or showers, capping daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius by reducing solar insolation— a shift from April 11's observed peaks near 19-20°C under partly clear conditions. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles show spread due to varying cloud thickness and precipitation timing, with northerly flows introducing cooler mid-level air; final differentiation hinges on hourly observations as the front influences peak heating around midday. New radar and satellite data overnight could refine odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 12?
14°C 33%
16°C 27%
15°C 25%
13°C 9.0%
$26,432 Vol.
$26,432 Vol.
12 abr 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
9%
14°C
33%
15°C
25%
16°C
27%
17°C
7%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 33%
16°C 27%
15°C 25%
13°C 9.0%
$26,432 Vol.
$26,432 Vol.
12 abr 2026
10°C or below
$3,841 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$2,850 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2,704 Vol.
1%
13°C
$2,243 Vol.
9%
14°C
$1,589 Vol.
33%
15°C
$1,592 Vol.
25%
16°C
$1,714 Vol.
27%
17°C
$2,201 Vol.
7%
18°C
$2,318 Vol.
2%
19°C
$2,082 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$3,305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 14°C (35%), 15°C (27%), and 16°C (25%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 12 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid an approaching Atlantic frontal boundary. Latest AEMET guidance indicates overcast skies with likely light rain or showers, capping daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius by reducing solar insolation— a shift from April 11's observed peaks near 19-20°C under partly clear conditions. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles show spread due to varying cloud thickness and precipitation timing, with northerly flows introducing cooler mid-level air; final differentiation hinges on hourly observations as the front influences peak heating around midday. New radar and satellite data overnight could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
Volumen
$26,432Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 14°C (35%), 15°C (27%), and 16°C (25%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 12 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid an approaching Atlantic frontal boundary. Latest AEMET guidance indicates overcast skies with likely light rain or showers, capping daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius by reducing solar insolation— a shift from April 11's observed peaks near 19-20°C under partly clear conditions. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles show spread due to varying cloud thickness and precipitation timing, with northerly flows introducing cooler mid-level air; final differentiation hinges on hourly observations as the front influences peak heating around midday. New radar and satellite data overnight could refine odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$26,432Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters around 14°C (35%), 15°C (27%), and 16°C (25%) for Madrid's highest temperature on April 12 at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, reflecting genuine uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid an approaching Atlantic frontal boundary. Latest AEMET guidance indicates overcast skies with likely light rain or showers, capping daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius by reducing solar insolation— a shift from April 11's observed peaks near 19-20°C under partly clear conditions. ECMWF and GFS model ensembles show spread due to varying cloud thickness and precipitation timing, with northerly flows introducing cooler mid-level air; final differentiation hinges on hourly observations as the front influences peak heating around midday. New radar and satellite data overnight could refine odds before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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