Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to 23°C or higher as Madrid's peak temperature today, backed by AEMET's official forecast projecting a 25°C high amid a dominant high-pressure system fostering clear skies, subsidence, and light southerly winds that promote efficient diurnal heating. Current morning readings exceed 20°C with low humidity around 30%, accelerating warming well above the April climatological average of 18°C. Global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS, show tight agreement on this mild advection pattern from the Mediterranean. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected marine cloud intrusion or a sudden frontal boundary, potentially capping highs at 22°C, though upper-air stability renders them improbable. AEMET's Retiro station observations will track real-time progress through afternoon peak.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 11?
23°C or higher 93.0%
22°C 5.7%
21°C <1%
18°C <1%
$66,147 Vol.
$66,147 Vol.
11 abr 2026
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
6%
23°C or higher
93%
23°C or higher 93.0%
22°C 5.7%
21°C <1%
18°C <1%
$66,147 Vol.
$66,147 Vol.
11 abr 2026
18°C
$3,586 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$4,561 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$6,337 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$11,248 Vol.
1%
22°C
$7,571 Vol.
6%
23°C or higher
$14,089 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to 23°C or higher as Madrid's peak temperature today, backed by AEMET's official forecast projecting a 25°C high amid a dominant high-pressure system fostering clear skies, subsidence, and light southerly winds that promote efficient diurnal heating. Current morning readings exceed 20°C with low humidity around 30%, accelerating warming well above the April climatological average of 18°C. Global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS, show tight agreement on this mild advection pattern from the Mediterranean. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected marine cloud intrusion or a sudden frontal boundary, potentially capping highs at 22°C, though upper-air stability renders them improbable. AEMET's Retiro station observations will track real-time progress through afternoon peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 7, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Volumen
$66,147Fecha de finalización
11 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 7, 2026, 12:45 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to 23°C or higher as Madrid's peak temperature today, backed by AEMET's official forecast projecting a 25°C high amid a dominant high-pressure system fostering clear skies, subsidence, and light southerly winds that promote efficient diurnal heating. Current morning readings exceed 20°C with low humidity around 30%, accelerating warming well above the April climatological average of 18°C. Global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS, show tight agreement on this mild advection pattern from the Mediterranean. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected marine cloud intrusion or a sudden frontal boundary, potentially capping highs at 22°C, though upper-air stability renders them improbable. AEMET's Retiro station observations will track real-time progress through afternoon peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$66,147Fecha de finalización
11 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 7, 2026, 12:45 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to 23°C or higher as Madrid's peak temperature today, backed by AEMET's official forecast projecting a 25°C high amid a dominant high-pressure system fostering clear skies, subsidence, and light southerly winds that promote efficient diurnal heating. Current morning readings exceed 20°C with low humidity around 30%, accelerating warming well above the April climatological average of 18°C. Global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS, show tight agreement on this mild advection pattern from the Mediterranean. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected marine cloud intrusion or a sudden frontal boundary, potentially capping highs at 22°C, though upper-air stability renders them improbable. AEMET's Retiro station observations will track real-time progress through afternoon peak.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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