Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 81% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or below in Shanghai on April 12, closely tracking the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of a 17°C daytime high amid light rain and cloudy skies. This positioning stems from a recent cooling trend, with today's high at 19°C giving way to persistent cloud cover and southeast winds of 10-15 km/h that limit solar heating and insolation. Broader regional weather patterns, including blue alerts for rainstorms across Jiangsu and Shanghai from a lingering low-pressure system, reinforce below-average mid-April conditions—climatologically around 18-19°C—forcing lower outcomes. Model ensembles like ECMWF show minimal upside risk, though rapid clearing could nudge toward 18°C; official Shanghai station data will resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 12?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 12?
17°C or below 83.3%
18°C 14%
19°C 2.2%
20°C 1.8%
$54,464 Vol.
$54,464 Vol.
12 abr 2026
17°C or below
83%
18°C
14%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
17°C or below 83.3%
18°C 14%
19°C 2.2%
20°C 1.8%
$54,464 Vol.
$54,464 Vol.
12 abr 2026
17°C or below
$9,855 Vol.
83%
18°C
$4,432 Vol.
14%
19°C
$6,181 Vol.
2%
20°C
$3,903 Vol.
2%
21°C
$3,961 Vol.
1%
22°C
$4,967 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$6,265 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$6,892 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,695 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,001 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$3,321 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 81% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or below in Shanghai on April 12, closely tracking the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of a 17°C daytime high amid light rain and cloudy skies. This positioning stems from a recent cooling trend, with today's high at 19°C giving way to persistent cloud cover and southeast winds of 10-15 km/h that limit solar heating and insolation. Broader regional weather patterns, including blue alerts for rainstorms across Jiangsu and Shanghai from a lingering low-pressure system, reinforce below-average mid-April conditions—climatologically around 18-19°C—forcing lower outcomes. Model ensembles like ECMWF show minimal upside risk, though rapid clearing could nudge toward 18°C; official Shanghai station data will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:38 AM ET
Volumen
$54,464Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:38 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 81% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or below in Shanghai on April 12, closely tracking the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of a 17°C daytime high amid light rain and cloudy skies. This positioning stems from a recent cooling trend, with today's high at 19°C giving way to persistent cloud cover and southeast winds of 10-15 km/h that limit solar heating and insolation. Broader regional weather patterns, including blue alerts for rainstorms across Jiangsu and Shanghai from a lingering low-pressure system, reinforce below-average mid-April conditions—climatologically around 18-19°C—forcing lower outcomes. Model ensembles like ECMWF show minimal upside risk, though rapid clearing could nudge toward 18°C; official Shanghai station data will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$54,464Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:38 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 81% implied probability to a highest temperature of 17°C or below in Shanghai on April 12, closely tracking the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast of a 17°C daytime high amid light rain and cloudy skies. This positioning stems from a recent cooling trend, with today's high at 19°C giving way to persistent cloud cover and southeast winds of 10-15 km/h that limit solar heating and insolation. Broader regional weather patterns, including blue alerts for rainstorms across Jiangsu and Shanghai from a lingering low-pressure system, reinforce below-average mid-April conditions—climatologically around 18-19°C—forcing lower outcomes. Model ensembles like ECMWF show minimal upside risk, though rapid clearing could nudge toward 18°C; official Shanghai station data will resolve the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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