Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Representative Aaron Bean facing Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+5, and recent race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Bean won reelection by double digits in 2024, and both parties' August 18 primaries produced the expected nominees without notable upset or fundraising shifts. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling or late developments, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome at current implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$26,071 Vol.
$26,071 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
89%
Democratic Party
11%
$26,071 Vol.
$26,071 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$15,859 Vol.
89%
Democratic Party
$10,212 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Representative Aaron Bean facing Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+5, and recent race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Bean won reelection by double digits in 2024, and both parties' August 18 primaries produced the expected nominees without notable upset or fundraising shifts. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling or late developments, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome at current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$26,071End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Representative Aaron Bean facing Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+5, and recent race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Bean won reelection by double digits in 2024, and both parties' August 18 primaries produced the expected nominees without notable upset or fundraising shifts. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling or late developments, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome at current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,071End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Representative Aaron Bean facing Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+5, and recent race ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify it as Solid or Safe Republican. Bean won reelection by double digits in 2024, and both parties' August 18 primaries produced the expected nominees without notable upset or fundraising shifts. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling or late developments, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome at current implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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