Strong model consensus from official forecasts and ensemble runs projects daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Jinan on August 15, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology in Shandong. Multiple sources, including AccuWeather, Met Office, and regional guidance, align on partly cloudy to thundery conditions with insufficient cloud cover or precipitation to suppress highs below the 26°C threshold. This produces the 99.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt, unforecasted cold front or unusually widespread heavy rain to enhance evaporative cooling, though current data show low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jinan on August 15?
Highest temperature in Jinan on August 15?
26°C or higher 99.6%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
24°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
100%
26°C or higher 99.6%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
24°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
16°C or below
$232 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$222 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$152 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$152 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$152 Vol.
1%
24°C
$152 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$568 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from official forecasts and ensemble runs projects daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Jinan on August 15, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology in Shandong. Multiple sources, including AccuWeather, Met Office, and regional guidance, align on partly cloudy to thundery conditions with insufficient cloud cover or precipitation to suppress highs below the 26°C threshold. This produces the 99.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt, unforecasted cold front or unusually widespread heavy rain to enhance evaporative cooling, though current data show low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,475End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from official forecasts and ensemble runs projects daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Jinan on August 15, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology in Shandong. Multiple sources, including AccuWeather, Met Office, and regional guidance, align on partly cloudy to thundery conditions with insufficient cloud cover or precipitation to suppress highs below the 26°C threshold. This produces the 99.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt, unforecasted cold front or unusually widespread heavy rain to enhance evaporative cooling, though current data show low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,475End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong model consensus from official forecasts and ensemble runs projects daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Jinan on August 15, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology in Shandong. Multiple sources, including AccuWeather, Met Office, and regional guidance, align on partly cloudy to thundery conditions with insufficient cloud cover or precipitation to suppress highs below the 26°C threshold. This produces the 99.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt, unforecasted cold front or unusually widespread heavy rain to enhance evaporative cooling, though current data show low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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