Pakistan Meteorological Department observations confirm Karachi's hottest day of 2026 so far on May 4, with maximums reaching 44.1°C amid an intense heatwave driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and dry continental air advection. Forecasts for May 6 indicate a modest cooldown to 36–38°C per PMD outlooks and global models like ECMWF and GFS, as strengthening sea breezes from the Arabian Sea moderate afternoon peaks and potential afternoon clouds increase. This model spread, compounded by coastal humidity influencing heat index but capping raw temperatures, fuels trader consensus around closely matched 35–37°C outcomes at 20–30% implied probabilities each. New PMD updates and model runs by May 5 could sharpen resolution criteria based on airport station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on May 6?
Highest temperature in Karachi on May 6?
37°C or higher 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$18,198 Vol.
$18,198 Vol.
May 6, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
Yes
37°C or higher 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$18,198 Vol.
$18,198 Vol.
May 6, 2026
27°C or below
$506 Vol.
No
28°C
$803 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,540 Vol.
No
30°C
$674 Vol.
No
31°C
$573 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,423 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,440 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,496 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,958 Vol.
No
36°C
$1,937 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$2,847 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Pakistan Meteorological Department observations confirm Karachi's hottest day of 2026 so far on May 4, with maximums reaching 44.1°C amid an intense heatwave driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and dry continental air advection. Forecasts for May 6 indicate a modest cooldown to 36–38°C per PMD outlooks and global models like ECMWF and GFS, as strengthening sea breezes from the Arabian Sea moderate afternoon peaks and potential afternoon clouds increase. This model spread, compounded by coastal humidity influencing heat index but capping raw temperatures, fuels trader consensus around closely matched 35–37°C outcomes at 20–30% implied probabilities each. New PMD updates and model runs by May 5 could sharpen resolution criteria based on airport station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 4, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$18,198End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Pakistan Meteorological Department observations confirm Karachi's hottest day of 2026 so far on May 4, with maximums reaching 44.1°C amid an intense heatwave driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and dry continental air advection. Forecasts for May 6 indicate a modest cooldown to 36–38°C per PMD outlooks and global models like ECMWF and GFS, as strengthening sea breezes from the Arabian Sea moderate afternoon peaks and potential afternoon clouds increase. This model spread, compounded by coastal humidity influencing heat index but capping raw temperatures, fuels trader consensus around closely matched 35–37°C outcomes at 20–30% implied probabilities each. New PMD updates and model runs by May 5 could sharpen resolution criteria based on airport station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Masroor Airbase Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$18,198End Date
May 6, 2026Market Opened
May 4, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Pakistan Meteorological Department observations confirm Karachi's hottest day of 2026 so far on May 4, with maximums reaching 44.1°C amid an intense heatwave driven by a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and dry continental air advection. Forecasts for May 6 indicate a modest cooldown to 36–38°C per PMD outlooks and global models like ECMWF and GFS, as strengthening sea breezes from the Arabian Sea moderate afternoon peaks and potential afternoon clouds increase. This model spread, compounded by coastal humidity influencing heat index but capping raw temperatures, fuels trader consensus around closely matched 35–37°C outcomes at 20–30% implied probabilities each. New PMD updates and model runs by May 5 could sharpen resolution criteria based on airport station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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