Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and international model guidance points to overnight lows near 23°C in Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability. Persistent summer humidity above 70 percent, combined with urban heat-island effects and limited radiative cooling under cloudy skies and scattered showers, typically prevents temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average of 24°C. Forecast soundings show light winds and possible precipitation through the period, which further moderates minimums, while any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C. Updated model runs and the Japan Meteorological Agency's next briefing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
23°C 54%
24°C 29%
22°C 12%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
5%
22°C
12%
23°C
54%
24°C
29%
25°C
7%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 54%
24°C 29%
22°C 12%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
$47 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$37 Vol.
1%
20°C
$15 Vol.
4%
21°C
$10 Vol.
5%
22°C
$30 Vol.
12%
23°C
$75 Vol.
54%
24°C
$65 Vol.
29%
25°C
$118 Vol.
7%
26°C
$11 Vol.
2%
27°C
$37 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$64 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and international model guidance points to overnight lows near 23°C in Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability. Persistent summer humidity above 70 percent, combined with urban heat-island effects and limited radiative cooling under cloudy skies and scattered showers, typically prevents temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average of 24°C. Forecast soundings show light winds and possible precipitation through the period, which further moderates minimums, while any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C. Updated model runs and the Japan Meteorological Agency's next briefing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus around these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$508End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and international model guidance points to overnight lows near 23°C in Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability. Persistent summer humidity above 70 percent, combined with urban heat-island effects and limited radiative cooling under cloudy skies and scattered showers, typically prevents temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average of 24°C. Forecast soundings show light winds and possible precipitation through the period, which further moderates minimums, while any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C. Updated model runs and the Japan Meteorological Agency's next briefing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus around these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$508End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and international model guidance points to overnight lows near 23°C in Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability. Persistent summer humidity above 70 percent, combined with urban heat-island effects and limited radiative cooling under cloudy skies and scattered showers, typically prevents temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average of 24°C. Forecast soundings show light winds and possible precipitation through the period, which further moderates minimums, while any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C. Updated model runs and the Japan Meteorological Agency's next briefing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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