Latest guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models including ECMWF and GFS clusters Beijing's highest temperature on April 17 around 23–25°C, driving the tight market-implied probabilities across these outcomes and reflecting springtime forecast uncertainty amid variable upper-air patterns. Following a cool-down to 17–18°C on April 13 under persistent northerly winds, recent high-pressure ridging and shifting southerly flow signal rebounding warmth closer to climatological mid-April averages of 20–23°C, though cloud cover and frontal timing introduce divergence among ensemble runs. Traders weigh these factors with skin in the game, awaiting April 16 observations and tomorrow's CMA updates to resolve model spreads before the market closes.