Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 26°C or below (42%) and several warmer outcomes at 40.5%, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS. Recent warm advection from southerly winds has pushed current highs near 31°C, but incoming moisture from the South China Sea raises chances for convective showers and increased cloud cover, potentially capping peaks at 26–27°C; clearer scenarios could allow urban heat island effects and solar heating to drive 32°C+. April's transitional climatology adds variability, with historical mid-month highs averaging 27–28°C amid rainy season onset. Watch CMA updates and new model runs by April 16 for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
27°C 28%
26°C or below 27%
28°C 27%
36°C or higher 27%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
26°C or below
27%
27°C
28%
28°C
27%
29°C
27%
30°C
26%
31°C
26%
32°C
26%
33°C
26%
34°C
26%
35°C
26%
36°C or higher
27%
27°C 28%
26°C or below 27%
28°C 27%
36°C or higher 27%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
27%
30°C
$0 Vol.
26%
31°C
$0 Vol.
26%
32°C
$0 Vol.
26%
33°C
$0 Vol.
26%
34°C
$0 Vol.
26%
35°C
$0 Vol.
26%
36°C or higher
$328 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 26°C or below (42%) and several warmer outcomes at 40.5%, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS. Recent warm advection from southerly winds has pushed current highs near 31°C, but incoming moisture from the South China Sea raises chances for convective showers and increased cloud cover, potentially capping peaks at 26–27°C; clearer scenarios could allow urban heat island effects and solar heating to drive 32°C+. April's transitional climatology adds variability, with historical mid-month highs averaging 27–28°C amid rainy season onset. Watch CMA updates and new model runs by April 16 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$328Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 26°C or below (42%) and several warmer outcomes at 40.5%, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS. Recent warm advection from southerly winds has pushed current highs near 31°C, but incoming moisture from the South China Sea raises chances for convective showers and increased cloud cover, potentially capping peaks at 26–27°C; clearer scenarios could allow urban heat island effects and solar heating to drive 32°C+. April's transitional climatology adds variability, with historical mid-month highs averaging 27–28°C amid rainy season onset. Watch CMA updates and new model runs by April 16 for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$328Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 26°C or below (42%) and several warmer outcomes at 40.5%, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS. Recent warm advection from southerly winds has pushed current highs near 31°C, but incoming moisture from the South China Sea raises chances for convective showers and increased cloud cover, potentially capping peaks at 26–27°C; clearer scenarios could allow urban heat island effects and solar heating to drive 32°C+. April's transitional climatology adds variability, with historical mid-month highs averaging 27–28°C amid rainy season onset. Watch CMA updates and new model runs by April 16 for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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