Trader sentiment hinges on the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing Miami's March 26 high at 82°F, fueling the narrow lead for 82-83°F (32.5%) over 80-81°F (28.5%), as ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converge on 81-84°F amid high-pressure ridging and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow caps peaks at 81°F, while delayed development allows 83°F+ inland heating—and slight warm biases in recent runs from neutral ENSO patterns exceeding March's 79°F climatology. Upcoming 00z model updates could pivot odds if convective activity emerges, underscoring forecast divergence in short-range tropical thermodynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Miami le 26 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Miami le 26 mars ?
82-83 °F 32%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 18%
78-79°F 10%
$12,625 Vol.
$12,625 Vol.
71°F ou moins
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
28%
82-83 °F
32%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
6%
88-89°F
1%
90°F ou plus
1%
82-83 °F 32%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 18%
78-79°F 10%
$12,625 Vol.
$12,625 Vol.
71°F ou moins
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
28%
82-83 °F
32%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
6%
88-89°F
1%
90°F ou plus
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment hinges on the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing Miami's March 26 high at 82°F, fueling the narrow lead for 82-83°F (32.5%) over 80-81°F (28.5%), as ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converge on 81-84°F amid high-pressure ridging and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow caps peaks at 81°F, while delayed development allows 83°F+ inland heating—and slight warm biases in recent runs from neutral ENSO patterns exceeding March's 79°F climatology. Upcoming 00z model updates could pivot odds if convective activity emerges, underscoring forecast divergence in short-range tropical thermodynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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