Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 2?
14°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$87,397 Vol.
$87,397 Vol.
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$87,397 Vol.
$87,397 Vol.
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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