Arizona’s 5th congressional district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and delivered Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, including the 2024 presidential result. With incumbent Andy Biggs retiring to run for governor, the July 2026 Republican primary produced nominee Mark Lamb, a former Pinal County sheriff who secured Trump’s endorsement and defeated his main rival by roughly 18 points. Democrat Elizabeth Lee emerged from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republicans have consistently held the seat. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that treats a GOP hold as the baseline outcome. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or sharp national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited scope for an upset before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAZ-05 House Election Winner
AZ-05 House Election Winner
$36,256 Vol.
$36,256 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
$36,256 Vol.
$36,256 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$20,782 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$15,473 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona’s 5th congressional district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and delivered Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, including the 2024 presidential result. With incumbent Andy Biggs retiring to run for governor, the July 2026 Republican primary produced nominee Mark Lamb, a former Pinal County sheriff who secured Trump’s endorsement and defeated his main rival by roughly 18 points. Democrat Elizabeth Lee emerged from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republicans have consistently held the seat. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that treats a GOP hold as the baseline outcome. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or sharp national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited scope for an upset before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$36,256Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona’s 5th congressional district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and delivered Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, including the 2024 presidential result. With incumbent Andy Biggs retiring to run for governor, the July 2026 Republican primary produced nominee Mark Lamb, a former Pinal County sheriff who secured Trump’s endorsement and defeated his main rival by roughly 18 points. Democrat Elizabeth Lee emerged from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republicans have consistently held the seat. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that treats a GOP hold as the baseline outcome. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or sharp national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited scope for an upset before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,256Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona’s 5th congressional district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and delivered Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, including the 2024 presidential result. With incumbent Andy Biggs retiring to run for governor, the July 2026 Republican primary produced nominee Mark Lamb, a former Pinal County sheriff who secured Trump’s endorsement and defeated his main rival by roughly 18 points. Democrat Elizabeth Lee emerged from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republicans have consistently held the seat. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that treats a GOP hold as the baseline outcome. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or sharp national Democratic surge could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current positioning indicate limited scope for an upset before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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