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EU debt downgrade before 2027?

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EU debt downgrade before 2027?

0% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
0% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60.5% implied probability for an EU sovereign credit rating downgrade before year-end 2026, reflecting escalating fiscal pressures from the bloc's ballooning debt—reaching EUR739 billion by end-2025, or nearly 4% of GNI—amid member states' high deficits and political instability. France's repeated 2025 downgrades to A+ by S&P and Fitch underscore vulnerabilities, with S&P projecting developed European net borrowing steady near 3% of GDP into 2026. Recent ESMA warnings (March 11) of a high-risk environment, including sovereign bond liquidity strains, bolster downside risks despite Fitch's January AAA affirmation. Key catalysts include quarterly rating reviews by S&P, Moody's, and Fitch through 2026, alongside EU fiscal rule enforcement amid geopolitical tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$837
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60.5% implied probability for an EU sovereign credit rating downgrade before year-end 2026, reflecting escalating fiscal pressures from the bloc's ballooning debt—reaching EUR739 billion by end-2025, or nearly 4% of GNI—amid member states' high deficits and political instability. France's repeated 2025 downgrades to A+ by S&P and Fitch underscore vulnerabilities, with S&P projecting developed European net borrowing steady near 3% of GDP into 2026. Recent ESMA warnings (March 11) of a high-risk environment, including sovereign bond liquidity strains, bolster downside risks despite Fitch's January AAA affirmation. Key catalysts include quarterly rating reviews by S&P, Moody's, and Fitch through 2026, alongside EU fiscal rule enforcement amid geopolitical tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$837
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"EU debt downgrade before 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 44% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 44¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 44% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"EU debt downgrade before 2027?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jan 7, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "EU debt downgrade before 2027?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" è 44% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 44% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.