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icon for EU debt downgrade before 2027?

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

icon for EU debt downgrade before 2027?

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

11% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
11% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations of the European Union's AAA and Aaa ratings with stable outlooks by Fitch in January 2026 and Moody's in March 2026 reflect robust institutional backing from core AAA member states, which underpin debt service capacity through the own-resources ceiling. Modest euro-area debt-to-GDP projections near 85-90% by end-2027, contained primary deficits, and investment-grade status across all member states support the 76% market-implied probability against a downgrade before 2027. Elevated sovereign yields amid August 2026 inflation at 3.3% and country-specific pressures in France and Italy have not spilled over to supranational EU debt, as agencies emphasize guarantee structures and fiscal resilience. Upcoming budget negotiations and ECB policy remain key watchpoints through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,461
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations of the European Union's AAA and Aaa ratings with stable outlooks by Fitch in January 2026 and Moody's in March 2026 reflect robust institutional backing from core AAA member states, which underpin debt service capacity through the own-resources ceiling. Modest euro-area debt-to-GDP projections near 85-90% by end-2027, contained primary deficits, and investment-grade status across all member states support the 76% market-implied probability against a downgrade before 2027. Elevated sovereign yields amid August 2026 inflation at 3.3% and country-specific pressures in France and Italy have not spilled over to supranational EU debt, as agencies emphasize guarantee structures and fiscal resilience. Upcoming budget negotiations and ECB policy remain key watchpoints through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,461
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the European Union's long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"EU debt downgrade before 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 25% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 25¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 25% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"EU debt downgrade before 2027?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jan 7, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "EU debt downgrade before 2027?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" è 25% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 25% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.