**Persistent subtropical high pressure and clear skies are driving expectations for a Madrid maximum of 37–39 °C on August 8, with the market assigning the highest implied probability (47.5 %) to 38 °C.** Official AEMET guidance and recent model runs indicate afternoon highs near 35–37 °C under weak synoptic flow and above-average 850 hPa temperatures, modestly exceeding the long-term August climatology of roughly 32–33 °C. Limited moisture, light winds, and strong daytime radiative heating on the Iberian Meseta support further intensification, while the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal passages keeps the distribution tightly clustered around these values. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble consensus and any upward revisions in 48-hour forecasts, as resolution depends on official AEMET station observations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid l'8 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid l'8 agosto?
38°C 48%
37°C 28%
39°C 20%
36°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ago 2026
34°C o inferiore
<1%
35°C
2%
36°C
5%
37°C
28%
38°C
48%
39°C
20%
40°C
3%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C o superiore
<1%
38°C 48%
37°C 28%
39°C 20%
36°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ago 2026
34°C o inferiore
$10 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$30 Vol.
2%
36°C
$146 Vol.
5%
37°C
$387 Vol.
28%
38°C
$316 Vol.
48%
39°C
$544 Vol.
20%
40°C
$86 Vol.
3%
41°C
$61 Vol.
2%
42°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$89 Vol.
<1%
44°C o superiore
$89 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent subtropical high pressure and clear skies are driving expectations for a Madrid maximum of 37–39 °C on August 8, with the market assigning the highest implied probability (47.5 %) to 38 °C.** Official AEMET guidance and recent model runs indicate afternoon highs near 35–37 °C under weak synoptic flow and above-average 850 hPa temperatures, modestly exceeding the long-term August climatology of roughly 32–33 °C. Limited moisture, light winds, and strong daytime radiative heating on the Iberian Meseta support further intensification, while the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal passages keeps the distribution tightly clustered around these values. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble consensus and any upward revisions in 48-hour forecasts, as resolution depends on official AEMET station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,869Data di fine
8 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent subtropical high pressure and clear skies are driving expectations for a Madrid maximum of 37–39 °C on August 8, with the market assigning the highest implied probability (47.5 %) to 38 °C.** Official AEMET guidance and recent model runs indicate afternoon highs near 35–37 °C under weak synoptic flow and above-average 850 hPa temperatures, modestly exceeding the long-term August climatology of roughly 32–33 °C. Limited moisture, light winds, and strong daytime radiative heating on the Iberian Meseta support further intensification, while the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal passages keeps the distribution tightly clustered around these values. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble consensus and any upward revisions in 48-hour forecasts, as resolution depends on official AEMET station observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,869Data di fine
8 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 6, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent subtropical high pressure and clear skies are driving expectations for a Madrid maximum of 37–39 °C on August 8, with the market assigning the highest implied probability (47.5 %) to 38 °C.** Official AEMET guidance and recent model runs indicate afternoon highs near 35–37 °C under weak synoptic flow and above-average 850 hPa temperatures, modestly exceeding the long-term August climatology of roughly 32–33 °C. Limited moisture, light winds, and strong daytime radiative heating on the Iberian Meseta support further intensification, while the absence of significant cloud cover or frontal passages keeps the distribution tightly clustered around these values. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble consensus and any upward revisions in 48-hour forecasts, as resolution depends on official AEMET station observations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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