Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, driven by a robust early pace with five such events already logged by USGS through April 15: M5.5 near Tonga (April 13), M5.7 south of Africa and M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada (April 14, amid a local aftershock swarm), M5.5 near Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands (April 14), and M5.7 near Tamarindo, Costa Rica (April 15). This exceeds the typical weekly baseline of 8–12 events, with USGS data showing variability from 4–8 in quiet periods to 12–20 during elevated global seismicity along plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Inherent Poisson-distributed uncertainty means clusters can persist, but no major fault-specific precursors signal extremes; watch USGS real-time catalog for daily updates through week's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 5.5 o superiore dal 13 al 19 aprile?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 5.5 o superiore dal 13 al 19 aprile?
>9 43%
8 15%
9 15%
7 12%
$107,290 Vol.
$107,290 Vol.
19 apr 2026
≤3
1%
4
1%
5
5%
6
8%
7
12%
8
15%
9
15%
>9
43%
>9 43%
8 15%
9 15%
7 12%
$107,290 Vol.
$107,290 Vol.
19 apr 2026
≤3
$70,963 Vol.
1%
4
$6,692 Vol.
1%
5
$2,738 Vol.
5%
6
$1,243 Vol.
8%
7
$1,819 Vol.
12%
8
$2,292 Vol.
15%
9
$1,269 Vol.
15%
>9
$20,274 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, driven by a robust early pace with five such events already logged by USGS through April 15: M5.5 near Tonga (April 13), M5.7 south of Africa and M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada (April 14, amid a local aftershock swarm), M5.5 near Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands (April 14), and M5.7 near Tamarindo, Costa Rica (April 15). This exceeds the typical weekly baseline of 8–12 events, with USGS data showing variability from 4–8 in quiet periods to 12–20 during elevated global seismicity along plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Inherent Poisson-distributed uncertainty means clusters can persist, but no major fault-specific precursors signal extremes; watch USGS real-time catalog for daily updates through week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$107,290Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, driven by a robust early pace with five such events already logged by USGS through April 15: M5.5 near Tonga (April 13), M5.7 south of Africa and M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada (April 14, amid a local aftershock swarm), M5.5 near Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands (April 14), and M5.7 near Tamarindo, Costa Rica (April 15). This exceeds the typical weekly baseline of 8–12 events, with USGS data showing variability from 4–8 in quiet periods to 12–20 during elevated global seismicity along plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Inherent Poisson-distributed uncertainty means clusters can persist, but no major fault-specific precursors signal extremes; watch USGS real-time catalog for daily updates through week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$107,290Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42.5% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, driven by a robust early pace with five such events already logged by USGS through April 15: M5.5 near Tonga (April 13), M5.7 south of Africa and M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada (April 14, amid a local aftershock swarm), M5.5 near Agrihan in the Northern Mariana Islands (April 14), and M5.7 near Tamarindo, Costa Rica (April 15). This exceeds the typical weekly baseline of 8–12 events, with USGS data showing variability from 4–8 in quiet periods to 12–20 during elevated global seismicity along plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Inherent Poisson-distributed uncertainty means clusters can persist, but no major fault-specific precursors signal extremes; watch USGS real-time catalog for daily updates through week's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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