Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing none in the first three days of the period and none globally since the M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics, where M6.0–6.9 events average 136 annually (~2.6 per week), but M6.5+ occurrences are rarer, yielding an expected count of ~0.4–0.5 per week under a Poisson process per the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Current global seismicity remains at normal levels with no elevated swarms, fault stress indicators, or subduction zone hotspots per USGS monitoring. New events could shift odds rapidly; watch daily USGS updates through April 19 resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - 19?
0 64%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,420 Vol.
$29,420 Vol.
19 apr 2026
0
64%
1
26%
2
8%
3
3%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 64%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,420 Vol.
$29,420 Vol.
19 apr 2026
0
$9,717 Vol.
64%
1
$6,860 Vol.
26%
2
$3,690 Vol.
8%
3
$1,414 Vol.
3%
4
$2,602 Vol.
1%
5
$2,139 Vol.
<1%
>5
$2,997 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing none in the first three days of the period and none globally since the M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics, where M6.0–6.9 events average 136 annually (~2.6 per week), but M6.5+ occurrences are rarer, yielding an expected count of ~0.4–0.5 per week under a Poisson process per the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Current global seismicity remains at normal levels with no elevated swarms, fault stress indicators, or subduction zone hotspots per USGS monitoring. New events could shift odds rapidly; watch daily USGS updates through April 19 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$29,420Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing none in the first three days of the period and none globally since the M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics, where M6.0–6.9 events average 136 annually (~2.6 per week), but M6.5+ occurrences are rarer, yielding an expected count of ~0.4–0.5 per week under a Poisson process per the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Current global seismicity remains at normal levels with no elevated swarms, fault stress indicators, or subduction zone hotspots per USGS monitoring. New events could shift odds rapidly; watch daily USGS updates through April 19 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$29,420Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 64% implied probability for zero magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13–19, reflecting USGS seismic catalog data showing none in the first three days of the period and none globally since the M7.4 near Ternate, Indonesia on April 1. This aligns with historical baselines from USGS statistics, where M6.0–6.9 events average 136 annually (~2.6 per week), but M6.5+ occurrences are rarer, yielding an expected count of ~0.4–0.5 per week under a Poisson process per the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. Current global seismicity remains at normal levels with no elevated swarms, fault stress indicators, or subduction zone hotspots per USGS monitoring. New events could shift odds rapidly; watch daily USGS updates through April 19 resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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