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Clima E Scienza·Weather

Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?

Market icon
Clima E Scienza·Weather

Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?

8+ 79%

7 18%

6 3.4%

Polymarket

$1,817,524 Vol.

8+ 79%

7 18%

6 3.4%

Polymarket

$1,817,524 Vol.

6

$118,438 Vol.

3%

7

$277,673 Vol.

18%

8+

$537,806 Vol.

79%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 79% implied probability for eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by four confirmed events already recorded by USGS through April 1—including a recent M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—clustering along Pacific subduction zones amid the Ring of Fire's typical tectonic activity. This elevated early-year pace exceeds the long-term global average of about 15-20 such events annually, prompting bets on continued seismicity given historical Poisson-distributed patterns and no significant slowdown. USGS real-time catalog monitoring will track further developments, with inherent uncertainty in fault stress release and aftershock sequences potentially tipping totals higher or lower.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,817,524
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 79% implied probability for eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by four confirmed events already recorded by USGS through April 1—including a recent M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24—clustering along Pacific subduction zones amid the Ring of Fire's typical tectonic activity. This elevated early-year pace exceeds the long-term global average of about 15-20 such events annually, prompting bets on continued seismicity given historical Poisson-distributed patterns and no significant slowdown. USGS real-time catalog monitoring will track further developments, with inherent uncertainty in fault stress release and aftershock sequences potentially tipping totals higher or lower.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,817,524
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 9 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "8+" a 79%, seguito da "7" a 18%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 79¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 79% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?" ha generato $1.8 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 4, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?", esplora i 9 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?" è "8+" a 79%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 79% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "7" a 18%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 7.0 o superiore entro il 30 giugno?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.