Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation for April in London at 63.3% implied probability, driven by exceptionally dry conditions so far—official Heathrow observations (Met Office station 03772) record just 3mm through mid-April, only 7% of the long-term monthly average of about 43mm. Following a saturated winter, a persistent high-pressure ridge has suppressed Atlantic moisture, delivering record early-April warmth (26.6°C at Kew Gardens) and negligible rainfall in southeast England during the first week (<1mm). UK Met Office long-range outlooks signal continued dry, settled weather through month's end, though low-confidence model runs note potential late shifts from westerly fronts. Upcoming daily forecast updates will refine the remainder's minimal rain potential, positioning higher totals as low-probability outliers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrecipitation in London in April?
Precipitation in London in April?
<20mm 63.3%
40-50mm 16.4%
30-40mm 10%
20-30mm 6.4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 apr 2026
<20mm
63%
20-30mm
6%
30-40mm
10%
40-50mm
16%
50-60mm
3%
60-70mm
2%
70mm+
3%
<20mm 63.3%
40-50mm 16.4%
30-40mm 10%
20-30mm 6.4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 apr 2026
<20mm
$2,237 Vol.
63%
20-30mm
$662 Vol.
6%
30-40mm
$1,108 Vol.
10%
40-50mm
$887 Vol.
16%
50-60mm
$1,841 Vol.
3%
60-70mm
$798 Vol.
2%
70mm+
$1,126 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation for April in London at 63.3% implied probability, driven by exceptionally dry conditions so far—official Heathrow observations (Met Office station 03772) record just 3mm through mid-April, only 7% of the long-term monthly average of about 43mm. Following a saturated winter, a persistent high-pressure ridge has suppressed Atlantic moisture, delivering record early-April warmth (26.6°C at Kew Gardens) and negligible rainfall in southeast England during the first week (<1mm). UK Met Office long-range outlooks signal continued dry, settled weather through month's end, though low-confidence model runs note potential late shifts from westerly fronts. Upcoming daily forecast updates will refine the remainder's minimal rain potential, positioning higher totals as low-probability outliers.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$8,661Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation for April in London at 63.3% implied probability, driven by exceptionally dry conditions so far—official Heathrow observations (Met Office station 03772) record just 3mm through mid-April, only 7% of the long-term monthly average of about 43mm. Following a saturated winter, a persistent high-pressure ridge has suppressed Atlantic moisture, delivering record early-April warmth (26.6°C at Kew Gardens) and negligible rainfall in southeast England during the first week (<1mm). UK Met Office long-range outlooks signal continued dry, settled weather through month's end, though low-confidence model runs note potential late shifts from westerly fronts. Upcoming daily forecast updates will refine the remainder's minimal rain potential, positioning higher totals as low-probability outliers.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,661Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors under 20mm total precipitation for April in London at 63.3% implied probability, driven by exceptionally dry conditions so far—official Heathrow observations (Met Office station 03772) record just 3mm through mid-April, only 7% of the long-term monthly average of about 43mm. Following a saturated winter, a persistent high-pressure ridge has suppressed Atlantic moisture, delivering record early-April warmth (26.6°C at Kew Gardens) and negligible rainfall in southeast England during the first week (<1mm). UK Met Office long-range outlooks signal continued dry, settled weather through month's end, though low-confidence model runs note potential late shifts from westerly fronts. Upcoming daily forecast updates will refine the remainder's minimal rain potential, positioning higher totals as low-probability outliers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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