Greg Casar secured the Democratic nomination for Texas's 37th congressional district with over 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Lauren Peña in the November 2026 general election. The district's boundaries, shaped by mid-decade redistricting, retain a strong Democratic baseline, reflected in consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points for Democratic candidates. Casar's incumbency, combined with limited Republican primary competition and the absence of major recent developments altering the race fundamentals, drives trader consensus toward a decisive victory. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift, significant candidate-specific events such as health issues or scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout in the Austin-area district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera TX-37
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera TX-37
$45,113 Vol.
$45,113 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Greg Casar (D)
97%
Lauren Peña (R)
2%
$45,113 Vol.
$45,113 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Greg Casar (D)
$26,900 Vol.
97%
Lauren Peña (R)
$18,214 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Casar secured the Democratic nomination for Texas's 37th congressional district with over 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Lauren Peña in the November 2026 general election. The district's boundaries, shaped by mid-decade redistricting, retain a strong Democratic baseline, reflected in consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points for Democratic candidates. Casar's incumbency, combined with limited Republican primary competition and the absence of major recent developments altering the race fundamentals, drives trader consensus toward a decisive victory. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift, significant candidate-specific events such as health issues or scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout in the Austin-area district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$45,113Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Casar secured the Democratic nomination for Texas's 37th congressional district with over 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Lauren Peña in the November 2026 general election. The district's boundaries, shaped by mid-decade redistricting, retain a strong Democratic baseline, reflected in consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points for Democratic candidates. Casar's incumbency, combined with limited Republican primary competition and the absence of major recent developments altering the race fundamentals, drives trader consensus toward a decisive victory. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift, significant candidate-specific events such as health issues or scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout in the Austin-area district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,113Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Casar secured the Democratic nomination for Texas's 37th congressional district with over 80 percent of the primary vote, positioning him as the clear frontrunner against Republican nominee Lauren Peña in the November 2026 general election. The district's boundaries, shaped by mid-decade redistricting, retain a strong Democratic baseline, reflected in consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points for Democratic candidates. Casar's incumbency, combined with limited Republican primary competition and the absence of major recent developments altering the race fundamentals, drives trader consensus toward a decisive victory. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift, significant candidate-specific events such as health issues or scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout in the Austin-area district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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