Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remaining well below the 26.5°C threshold required for sustained tropical cyclone development across the main development region, per NOAA monitoring. Mid-April conditions feature high vertical wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and weak easterly waves, all suppressing genesis as confirmed in the latest National Hurricane Center outlooks showing no active disturbances. Historical records show no Atlantic hurricanes before late May in the reliable era (post-1851), with pre-season activity limited to rare subtropical systems. While an unprecedented SST spike from prolonged heat or a transitioning hybrid storm could theoretically shift odds, model consensus and climatology indicate near-zero risk; watch NHC's inaugural regular Tropical Weather Outlook in late April for updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$41,467 Vol.
$41,467 Vol.
31 mag 2026
$41,467 Vol.
$41,467 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remaining well below the 26.5°C threshold required for sustained tropical cyclone development across the main development region, per NOAA monitoring. Mid-April conditions feature high vertical wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and weak easterly waves, all suppressing genesis as confirmed in the latest National Hurricane Center outlooks showing no active disturbances. Historical records show no Atlantic hurricanes before late May in the reliable era (post-1851), with pre-season activity limited to rare subtropical systems. While an unprecedented SST spike from prolonged heat or a transitioning hybrid storm could theoretically shift odds, model consensus and climatology indicate near-zero risk; watch NHC's inaugural regular Tropical Weather Outlook in late April for updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercato aperto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$41,467Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remaining well below the 26.5°C threshold required for sustained tropical cyclone development across the main development region, per NOAA monitoring. Mid-April conditions feature high vertical wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and weak easterly waves, all suppressing genesis as confirmed in the latest National Hurricane Center outlooks showing no active disturbances. Historical records show no Atlantic hurricanes before late May in the reliable era (post-1851), with pre-season activity limited to rare subtropical systems. While an unprecedented SST spike from prolonged heat or a transitioning hybrid storm could theoretically shift odds, model consensus and climatology indicate near-zero risk; watch NHC's inaugural regular Tropical Weather Outlook in late April for updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$41,467Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 96.4% implied probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remaining well below the 26.5°C threshold required for sustained tropical cyclone development across the main development region, per NOAA monitoring. Mid-April conditions feature high vertical wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and weak easterly waves, all suppressing genesis as confirmed in the latest National Hurricane Center outlooks showing no active disturbances. Historical records show no Atlantic hurricanes before late May in the reliable era (post-1851), with pre-season activity limited to rare subtropical systems. While an unprecedented SST spike from prolonged heat or a transitioning hybrid storm could theoretically shift odds, model consensus and climatology indicate near-zero risk; watch NHC's inaugural regular Tropical Weather Outlook in late April for updates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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