Preliminary ERA5 data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service through mid-April 2026 show global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly in the 1.15–1.24ºC range above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, fueling trader consensus with 73.5% implied probability across these bins. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March on record at 0.53ºC above the 1991–2020 average (translating to ~1.4ºC pre-industrial), bolstered by near-record sea surface temperatures. NOAA confirms ENSO-neutral conditions favored at 80% through June, while WMO seasonal forecasts signal above-normal land temperatures for April–June. Final resolution hinges on NOAA or equivalent end-of-month data, with remaining uncertainty from late-month weather variability and model ensembles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年4月温度上昇（º C ）
2026年4月温度上昇（º C ）
1.15～1.19℃ 44%
1.20〜1.24ºC 30%
1.10〜1.14℃ 10%
1.25〜1.29ºC 9%
$122,439 Vol.
$122,439 Vol.
2026/05/10
<1.10ºC
4%
1.10〜1.14℃
10%
1.15～1.19℃
44%
1.20〜1.24ºC
30%
1.25〜1.29ºC
9%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.15～1.19℃ 44%
1.20〜1.24ºC 30%
1.10〜1.14℃ 10%
1.25〜1.29ºC 9%
$122,439 Vol.
$122,439 Vol.
2026/05/10
<1.10ºC
$28,387 Vol.
4%
1.10〜1.14℃
$23,018 Vol.
10%
1.15～1.19℃
$13,890 Vol.
44%
1.20〜1.24ºC
$16,861 Vol.
30%
1.25〜1.29ºC
$27,806 Vol.
9%
>1.29ºC
$12,477 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service through mid-April 2026 show global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly in the 1.15–1.24ºC range above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, fueling trader consensus with 73.5% implied probability across these bins. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March on record at 0.53ºC above the 1991–2020 average (translating to ~1.4ºC pre-industrial), bolstered by near-record sea surface temperatures. NOAA confirms ENSO-neutral conditions favored at 80% through June, while WMO seasonal forecasts signal above-normal land temperatures for April–June. Final resolution hinges on NOAA or equivalent end-of-month data, with remaining uncertainty from late-month weather variability and model ensembles.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
音量
$122,439終了日
2026/05/10マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service through mid-April 2026 show global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly in the 1.15–1.24ºC range above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, fueling trader consensus with 73.5% implied probability across these bins. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March on record at 0.53ºC above the 1991–2020 average (translating to ~1.4ºC pre-industrial), bolstered by near-record sea surface temperatures. NOAA confirms ENSO-neutral conditions favored at 80% through June, while WMO seasonal forecasts signal above-normal land temperatures for April–June. Final resolution hinges on NOAA or equivalent end-of-month data, with remaining uncertainty from late-month weather variability and model ensembles.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$122,439終了日
2026/05/10マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service through mid-April 2026 show global surface air temperature anomalies tracking firmly in the 1.15–1.24ºC range above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, fueling trader consensus with 73.5% implied probability across these bins. March 2026 ranked as the fourth-warmest March on record at 0.53ºC above the 1991–2020 average (translating to ~1.4ºC pre-industrial), bolstered by near-record sea surface temperatures. NOAA confirms ENSO-neutral conditions favored at 80% through June, while WMO seasonal forecasts signal above-normal land temperatures for April–June. Final resolution hinges on NOAA or equivalent end-of-month data, with remaining uncertainty from late-month weather variability and model ensembles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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