Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to a Cape Town high of 23°C or higher on April 18, driven by South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts charting potential maxima near that threshold amid lingering high-pressure influences, contrasting with private models like AccuWeather projecting 16–21°C under cloudy skies and isolated showers from a recent cold front that cooled the region since April 14–15 (dropping highs from 21°C+). A 25.5% chance for 13°C or below reflects risks of persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, and frontal remnants suppressing daytime heating, while mid-range outcomes (15–19°C) cluster at ~19.5% each per model spreads. April climatology averages 22°C highs, but inherent short-term forecast uncertainty persists; monitor SAWS updates and new ECMWF/GFS runs by April 17 for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 18?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 18?
16°C 34%
18°C 29%
17°C 22%
15°C 22%
新規
新規
2026/04/18
13°C or below
14%
14°C
20%
15°C
22%
16°C
34%
17°C
22%
18°C
29%
19°C
20%
20°C
18%
21°C
15%
22°C
13%
23°C or higher
17%
16°C 34%
18°C 29%
17°C 22%
15°C 22%
新規
新規
2026/04/18
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
14%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$5 Vol.
34%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
29%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
18%
21°C
$0 Vol.
15%
22°C
$0 Vol.
13%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to a Cape Town high of 23°C or higher on April 18, driven by South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts charting potential maxima near that threshold amid lingering high-pressure influences, contrasting with private models like AccuWeather projecting 16–21°C under cloudy skies and isolated showers from a recent cold front that cooled the region since April 14–15 (dropping highs from 21°C+). A 25.5% chance for 13°C or below reflects risks of persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, and frontal remnants suppressing daytime heating, while mid-range outcomes (15–19°C) cluster at ~19.5% each per model spreads. April climatology averages 22°C highs, but inherent short-term forecast uncertainty persists; monitor SAWS updates and new ECMWF/GFS runs by April 17 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to a Cape Town high of 23°C or higher on April 18, driven by South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts charting potential maxima near that threshold amid lingering high-pressure influences, contrasting with private models like AccuWeather projecting 16–21°C under cloudy skies and isolated showers from a recent cold front that cooled the region since April 14–15 (dropping highs from 21°C+). A 25.5% chance for 13°C or below reflects risks of persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, and frontal remnants suppressing daytime heating, while mid-range outcomes (15–19°C) cluster at ~19.5% each per model spreads. April climatology averages 22°C highs, but inherent short-term forecast uncertainty persists; monitor SAWS updates and new ECMWF/GFS runs by April 17 for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$0終了日
2026/04/18マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to a Cape Town high of 23°C or higher on April 18, driven by South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts charting potential maxima near that threshold amid lingering high-pressure influences, contrasting with private models like AccuWeather projecting 16–21°C under cloudy skies and isolated showers from a recent cold front that cooled the region since April 14–15 (dropping highs from 21°C+). A 25.5% chance for 13°C or below reflects risks of persistent southerly winds, cloud cover, and frontal remnants suppressing daytime heating, while mid-range outcomes (15–19°C) cluster at ~19.5% each per model spreads. April climatology averages 22°C highs, but inherent short-term forecast uncertainty persists; monitor SAWS updates and new ECMWF/GFS runs by April 17 for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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