Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39.5% implied probability for a 13°C high temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 17, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peaks around 12–14°C under persistent overcast skies and moderate northerly winds channeling cool Black Sea air into the Marmara region. Recent observations on April 16 showed highs near 14–15°C with high humidity and cloudiness, continuing a pattern of below-seasonal norms—mid-April climatological averages hover at 15–16°C on the Saffir-Simpson-influenced spring variability. Model disagreements on exact cloud persistence and boundary layer temperatures keep 12°C viable at 29.5%, while warmer outcomes fade due to lacking solar heating. Final 12z runs today and early April 17 soundings may shift odds before NOAA resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
13°C 40%
12°C 30%
14°C 16%
11°C 12%
新規
$14,905 Vol.
新規
$14,905 Vol.
2026/04/17
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
12%
12°C
30%
13°C
40%
14°C
16%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 40%
12°C 30%
14°C 16%
11°C 12%
新規
$14,905 Vol.
新規
$14,905 Vol.
2026/04/17
8°C or below
$1,660 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,547 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,359 Vol.
1%
11°C
$2,719 Vol.
12%
12°C
$510 Vol.
30%
13°C
$581 Vol.
40%
14°C
$516 Vol.
16%
15°C
$1,465 Vol.
2%
16°C
$1,194 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,101 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$1,258 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39.5% implied probability for a 13°C high temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 17, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peaks around 12–14°C under persistent overcast skies and moderate northerly winds channeling cool Black Sea air into the Marmara region. Recent observations on April 16 showed highs near 14–15°C with high humidity and cloudiness, continuing a pattern of below-seasonal norms—mid-April climatological averages hover at 15–16°C on the Saffir-Simpson-influenced spring variability. Model disagreements on exact cloud persistence and boundary layer temperatures keep 12°C viable at 29.5%, while warmer outcomes fade due to lacking solar heating. Final 12z runs today and early April 17 soundings may shift odds before NOAA resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
音量
$14,905終了日
2026/04/17マーケット開始日
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39.5% implied probability for a 13°C high temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 17, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peaks around 12–14°C under persistent overcast skies and moderate northerly winds channeling cool Black Sea air into the Marmara region. Recent observations on April 16 showed highs near 14–15°C with high humidity and cloudiness, continuing a pattern of below-seasonal norms—mid-April climatological averages hover at 15–16°C on the Saffir-Simpson-influenced spring variability. Model disagreements on exact cloud persistence and boundary layer temperatures keep 12°C viable at 29.5%, while warmer outcomes fade due to lacking solar heating. Final 12z runs today and early April 17 soundings may shift odds before NOAA resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$14,905終了日
2026/04/17マーケット開始日
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 39.5% implied probability for a 13°C high temperature at Istanbul Airport on April 17, reflecting the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting peaks around 12–14°C under persistent overcast skies and moderate northerly winds channeling cool Black Sea air into the Marmara region. Recent observations on April 16 showed highs near 14–15°C with high humidity and cloudiness, continuing a pattern of below-seasonal norms—mid-April climatological averages hover at 15–16°C on the Saffir-Simpson-influenced spring variability. Model disagreements on exact cloud persistence and boundary layer temperatures keep 12°C viable at 29.5%, while warmer outcomes fade due to lacking solar heating. Final 12z runs today and early April 17 soundings may shift odds before NOAA resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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