Trader consensus reflects 92% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged consolidation of power amid recent military purges. In late January 2026, official investigations targeted top PLA generals Zhang Youxia—a longtime Xi associate—and Liu Zhenli for corruption and alleged nuclear secrets leaks, sparking unverified rumors of a failed plot against Xi on January 18. No evidence of an actual coup has emerged, with state media framing the moves as anti-corruption enforcement, reinforcing perceptions of ironclad central control over the People's Liberation Army. Absent new escalations, scandals, or economic shocks, the stability of Xi's leadership underpins these high odds, though rapid shifts remain possible in opaque Chinese politics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$117,955 거래량
$117,955 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$117,955 거래량
$117,955 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 92% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged consolidation of power amid recent military purges. In late January 2026, official investigations targeted top PLA generals Zhang Youxia—a longtime Xi associate—and Liu Zhenli for corruption and alleged nuclear secrets leaks, sparking unverified rumors of a failed plot against Xi on January 18. No evidence of an actual coup has emerged, with state media framing the moves as anti-corruption enforcement, reinforcing perceptions of ironclad central control over the People's Liberation Army. Absent new escalations, scandals, or economic shocks, the stability of Xi's leadership underpins these high odds, though rapid shifts remain possible in opaque Chinese politics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$117,955종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 92% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged consolidation of power amid recent military purges. In late January 2026, official investigations targeted top PLA generals Zhang Youxia—a longtime Xi associate—and Liu Zhenli for corruption and alleged nuclear secrets leaks, sparking unverified rumors of a failed plot against Xi on January 18. No evidence of an actual coup has emerged, with state media framing the moves as anti-corruption enforcement, reinforcing perceptions of ironclad central control over the People's Liberation Army. Absent new escalations, scandals, or economic shocks, the stability of Xi's leadership underpins these high odds, though rapid shifts remain possible in opaque Chinese politics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$117,955종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 92% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged consolidation of power amid recent military purges. In late January 2026, official investigations targeted top PLA generals Zhang Youxia—a longtime Xi associate—and Liu Zhenli for corruption and alleged nuclear secrets leaks, sparking unverified rumors of a failed plot against Xi on January 18. No evidence of an actual coup has emerged, with state media framing the moves as anti-corruption enforcement, reinforcing perceptions of ironclad central control over the People's Liberation Army. Absent new escalations, scandals, or economic shocks, the stability of Xi's leadership underpins these high odds, though rapid shifts remain possible in opaque Chinese politics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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