USGS data confirms four magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 through April 16, including a recent cluster of three powerful events along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: 7.5 off Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 off Indonesia on April 1. This accelerated pace—exceeding the long-term global average of about 15 such events annually—drives trader consensus toward 8+ total by June 30 (75.5% implied probability), as the uptick signals sustained tectonic stress release in high-risk areas like the New Britain Trench and Halmahera region. With roughly 2.5 months remaining, market sentiment reflects Poisson-distributed expectations of 4+ additional events amid inherent seismic variability, tracked via real-time USGS monitoring; next catalog updates could refine probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트8회 이상 75%
7 20%
6 3.4%
$1,818,221 거래량
$1,818,221 거래량
2026.06.30
6
3%
7
20%
8회 이상
75%
8회 이상 75%
7 20%
6 3.4%
$1,818,221 거래량
$1,818,221 거래량
2026.06.30
6
$118,509 거래량
3%
7
$277,750 거래량
20%
8회 이상
$537,958 거래량
75%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data confirms four magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 through April 16, including a recent cluster of three powerful events along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: 7.5 off Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 off Indonesia on April 1. This accelerated pace—exceeding the long-term global average of about 15 such events annually—drives trader consensus toward 8+ total by June 30 (75.5% implied probability), as the uptick signals sustained tectonic stress release in high-risk areas like the New Britain Trench and Halmahera region. With roughly 2.5 months remaining, market sentiment reflects Poisson-distributed expectations of 4+ additional events amid inherent seismic variability, tracked via real-time USGS monitoring; next catalog updates could refine probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
거래량
$1,818,221종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data confirms four magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 through April 16, including a recent cluster of three powerful events along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: 7.5 off Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 off Indonesia on April 1. This accelerated pace—exceeding the long-term global average of about 15 such events annually—drives trader consensus toward 8+ total by June 30 (75.5% implied probability), as the uptick signals sustained tectonic stress release in high-risk areas like the New Britain Trench and Halmahera region. With roughly 2.5 months remaining, market sentiment reflects Poisson-distributed expectations of 4+ additional events amid inherent seismic variability, tracked via real-time USGS monitoring; next catalog updates could refine probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
거래량
$1,818,221종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...USGS data confirms four magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide in 2026 through April 16, including a recent cluster of three powerful events along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones: 7.5 off Tonga on March 24, 7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and 7.4 off Indonesia on April 1. This accelerated pace—exceeding the long-term global average of about 15 such events annually—drives trader consensus toward 8+ total by June 30 (75.5% implied probability), as the uptick signals sustained tectonic stress release in high-risk areas like the New Britain Trench and Halmahera region. With roughly 2.5 months remaining, market sentiment reflects Poisson-distributed expectations of 4+ additional events amid inherent seismic variability, tracked via real-time USGS monitoring; next catalog updates could refine probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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