Trader consensus favors two countries at 67.5% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military sites in early April—such as missile facilities and the Parchin complex—and sustained operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through mid-April. These actions stem from the 2026 Iran war's escalation, with Hezbollah launching over 3,000 rockets since March, prompting IDF responses despite a fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 that has produced only a partial lull in Iran strikes. Lower odds on three (22%) or more reflect de-escalation signals, including Israel-Lebanon talks and U.S.-enforced naval blockade on Iran, diminishing prospects for new fronts like Syria or Yemen absent major provocations before month's end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2 68%
3 21%
4개국 이상 14%
$105,794 거래량
$105,794 거래량
2026.04.30
2
68%
3
21%
4개국 이상
14%
2 68%
3 21%
4개국 이상 14%
$105,794 거래량
$105,794 거래량
2026.04.30
2
$26,703 거래량
68%
3
$31,228 거래량
21%
4개국 이상
$40,396 거래량
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors two countries at 67.5% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military sites in early April—such as missile facilities and the Parchin complex—and sustained operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through mid-April. These actions stem from the 2026 Iran war's escalation, with Hezbollah launching over 3,000 rockets since March, prompting IDF responses despite a fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 that has produced only a partial lull in Iran strikes. Lower odds on three (22%) or more reflect de-escalation signals, including Israel-Lebanon talks and U.S.-enforced naval blockade on Iran, diminishing prospects for new fronts like Syria or Yemen absent major provocations before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
거래량
$105,794종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors two countries at 67.5% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military sites in early April—such as missile facilities and the Parchin complex—and sustained operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through mid-April. These actions stem from the 2026 Iran war's escalation, with Hezbollah launching over 3,000 rockets since March, prompting IDF responses despite a fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 that has produced only a partial lull in Iran strikes. Lower odds on three (22%) or more reflect de-escalation signals, including Israel-Lebanon talks and U.S.-enforced naval blockade on Iran, diminishing prospects for new fronts like Syria or Yemen absent major provocations before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$105,794종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors two countries at 67.5% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military sites in early April—such as missile facilities and the Parchin complex—and sustained operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through mid-April. These actions stem from the 2026 Iran war's escalation, with Hezbollah launching over 3,000 rockets since March, prompting IDF responses despite a fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 that has produced only a partial lull in Iran strikes. Lower odds on three (22%) or more reflect de-escalation signals, including Israel-Lebanon talks and U.S.-enforced naval blockade on Iran, diminishing prospects for new fronts like Syria or Yemen absent major provocations before month's end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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