Trader consensus favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 53.5% implied probability for 2026, closely tracking the historical global average of about 0.6 such events per year documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, with one eruption at 35.5% reflecting realistic Poisson-distributed variability. No VEI≥4 events have occurred through mid-April despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, including low-level activity at sites like Semeru and Great Sitkin—typically Strombolian or effusive styles falling short of the 0.1 km³ tephra threshold for VEI≥4. Recent GVP weekly reports show no escalatory seismic or deformation signals at high-risk volcanoes, though inherent magmatic unpredictability persists; upcoming observatory updates from USGS and GVP could prompt shifts as the year progresses.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 54%
1 36%
2 5.9%
3 1.8%
$993,363 거래량
$993,363 거래량
2026.12.31
0
54%
1
36%
2
6%
3
2%
4
<1%
5회 이상
1%
0 54%
1 36%
2 5.9%
3 1.8%
$993,363 거래량
$993,363 거래량
2026.12.31
0
$446,971 거래량
54%
1
$250,145 거래량
36%
2
$21,806 거래량
6%
3
$15,221 거래량
2%
4
$15,476 거래량
<1%
5회 이상
$243,743 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 53.5% implied probability for 2026, closely tracking the historical global average of about 0.6 such events per year documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, with one eruption at 35.5% reflecting realistic Poisson-distributed variability. No VEI≥4 events have occurred through mid-April despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, including low-level activity at sites like Semeru and Great Sitkin—typically Strombolian or effusive styles falling short of the 0.1 km³ tephra threshold for VEI≥4. Recent GVP weekly reports show no escalatory seismic or deformation signals at high-risk volcanoes, though inherent magmatic unpredictability persists; upcoming observatory updates from USGS and GVP could prompt shifts as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
거래량
$993,363종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 53.5% implied probability for 2026, closely tracking the historical global average of about 0.6 such events per year documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, with one eruption at 35.5% reflecting realistic Poisson-distributed variability. No VEI≥4 events have occurred through mid-April despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, including low-level activity at sites like Semeru and Great Sitkin—typically Strombolian or effusive styles falling short of the 0.1 km³ tephra threshold for VEI≥4. Recent GVP weekly reports show no escalatory seismic or deformation signals at high-risk volcanoes, though inherent magmatic unpredictability persists; upcoming observatory updates from USGS and GVP could prompt shifts as the year progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
거래량
$993,363종료일
2027.03.31마켓 개설일
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors zero large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) at 53.5% implied probability for 2026, closely tracking the historical global average of about 0.6 such events per year documented by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, with one eruption at 35.5% reflecting realistic Poisson-distributed variability. No VEI≥4 events have occurred through mid-April despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, including low-level activity at sites like Semeru and Great Sitkin—typically Strombolian or effusive styles falling short of the 0.1 km³ tephra threshold for VEI≥4. Recent GVP weekly reports show no escalatory seismic or deformation signals at high-risk volcanoes, though inherent magmatic unpredictability persists; upcoming observatory updates from USGS and GVP could prompt shifts as the year progresses.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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