Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 19–21°C (implied probabilities 25.5%, 23.5%, and 20.0%, respectively), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild highs for Buenos Aires on April 5 amid seasonal autumn cooling. Subtle model divergences—such as varying cloud cover timing, sea breeze influences from the Río de la Plata moderating afternoon peaks, and boundary layer stability—differentiate these outcomes, with fuller overcast scenarios favoring 19°C and clearer intervals supporting 21°C. Early April historical highs average 22°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional data, but transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions introduce slight downward pressure. Watch SMN updates and 00Z model runs on April 3 for refinements, as 2–3°C short-range uncertainty persists.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Buenos Aires no dia 5 de abril?
Temperatura mais alta em Buenos Aires no dia 5 de abril?
19°C 32%
21°C 24%
20°C 20%
22°C 12%
14°C ou menos
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
9%
19°C
26%
20°C
20%
21°C
24%
22°C
12%
23°C
7%
24°C ou mais
4%
19°C 32%
21°C 24%
20°C 20%
22°C 12%
14°C ou menos
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
9%
19°C
26%
20°C
20%
21°C
24%
22°C
12%
23°C
7%
24°C ou mais
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 19–21°C (implied probabilities 25.5%, 23.5%, and 20.0%, respectively), driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mild highs for Buenos Aires on April 5 amid seasonal autumn cooling. Subtle model divergences—such as varying cloud cover timing, sea breeze influences from the Río de la Plata moderating afternoon peaks, and boundary layer stability—differentiate these outcomes, with fuller overcast scenarios favoring 19°C and clearer intervals supporting 21°C. Early April historical highs average 22°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional data, but transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions introduce slight downward pressure. Watch SMN updates and 00Z model runs on April 3 for refinements, as 2–3°C short-range uncertainty persists.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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