Trader sentiment on London's highest temperature March 28 clusters tightly around 11°C (30.5% implied probability), 12°C (23%), and 10°C (22%), reflecting latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 10.5-11.5°C amid mild westerly Atlantic airflow. These closely matched outcomes hinge on subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing: fuller low-level clouds favor 10°C by trapping heat loss, while partial clearing boosts 12°C via enhanced insolation. Historical late-March highs average 11.2°C at Heathrow, aligning with this consensus, though short-range model runs show 1-2°C spread from jet stream positioning. Upcoming 00Z updates could shift odds as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Londres em 28 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Londres em 28 de março?
11°C 31%
12°C 23%
10°C 22%
9°C 14%
6°C ou menos
2%
7°C
4%
8°C
5%
9°C
14%
10°C
22%
11°C
31%
12°C
23%
13°C
9%
14°C
5%
15°C
3%
16°C ou mais
2%
11°C 31%
12°C 23%
10°C 22%
9°C 14%
6°C ou menos
2%
7°C
4%
8°C
5%
9°C
14%
10°C
22%
11°C
31%
12°C
23%
13°C
9%
14°C
5%
15°C
3%
16°C ou mais
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on London's highest temperature March 28 clusters tightly around 11°C (30.5% implied probability), 12°C (23%), and 10°C (22%), reflecting latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 10.5-11.5°C amid mild westerly Atlantic airflow. These closely matched outcomes hinge on subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary layer mixing: fuller low-level clouds favor 10°C by trapping heat loss, while partial clearing boosts 12°C via enhanced insolation. Historical late-March highs average 11.2°C at Heathrow, aligning with this consensus, though short-range model runs show 1-2°C spread from jet stream positioning. Upcoming 00Z updates could shift odds as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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