Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward a 12°C high in London on March 27 (28.5% implied probability), edging out 13°C (25.5%), driven by Met Office ensemble forecasts averaging 11-13°C amid a cold northerly airflow. Recent developments—a deepening low-pressure trough pulling Arctic air south—have prompted yellow warnings for snow and ice, potentially capping peaks via wintry showers and cloud cover, as seen in ECMWF and GFS 48-hour runs clustering 8-12°C. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in diurnal solar heating: brief clear intervals could nudge maxima to 13°C, while persistent overcast favors 11-12°C, aligning with Heathrow's late-March climatological mean of 11.7°C and model spread uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in London on March 27?
Highest temperature in London on March 27?
12°C 29%
13°C 26%
14°C 20%
11°C 14%
$11,193 Vol.
$11,193 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
4%
10°C
7%
11°C
14%
12°C
29%
13°C
26%
14°C
20%
15°C
5%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
12°C 29%
13°C 26%
14°C 20%
11°C 14%
$11,193 Vol.
$11,193 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
4%
10°C
7%
11°C
14%
12°C
29%
13°C
26%
14°C
20%
15°C
5%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward a 12°C high in London on March 27 (28.5% implied probability), edging out 13°C (25.5%), driven by Met Office ensemble forecasts averaging 11-13°C amid a cold northerly airflow. Recent developments—a deepening low-pressure trough pulling Arctic air south—have prompted yellow warnings for snow and ice, potentially capping peaks via wintry showers and cloud cover, as seen in ECMWF and GFS 48-hour runs clustering 8-12°C. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in diurnal solar heating: brief clear intervals could nudge maxima to 13°C, while persistent overcast favors 11-12°C, aligning with Heathrow's late-March climatological mean of 11.7°C and model spread uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions