Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 32°C (35%) as Lucknow's highest temperature on March 24, propelled by the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest forecast capping daytime highs at 32-33°C amid seasonal pre-monsoon warming and lingering effects from a recent western disturbance. Observations from nearby stations yesterday hit 33.4°C, but cloud cover and moderate winds are suppressing extremes, bolstering odds for 31°C or below (24.5%) and 33°C (23.5%). Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show low confidence in 41°C+ outliers (19%), citing ample soil moisture and neutral jet stream positioning that historically limit March spikes beyond 35°C in Uttar Pradesh. Final resolution hinges on IMD's verified airport readings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Lucknow em 24 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Lucknow em 24 de março?
31°C ou menos 35%
32°C 35%
33°C 32%
35°C 18%
31°C ou menos
25%
32°C
35%
33°C
24%
34°C
16%
35°C
18%
36°C
11%
37°C
12%
38°C
12%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C ou mais
15%
31°C ou menos 35%
32°C 35%
33°C 32%
35°C 18%
31°C ou menos
25%
32°C
35%
33°C
24%
34°C
16%
35°C
18%
36°C
11%
37°C
12%
38°C
12%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C ou mais
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 32°C (35%) as Lucknow's highest temperature on March 24, propelled by the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) latest forecast capping daytime highs at 32-33°C amid seasonal pre-monsoon warming and lingering effects from a recent western disturbance. Observations from nearby stations yesterday hit 33.4°C, but cloud cover and moderate winds are suppressing extremes, bolstering odds for 31°C or below (24.5%) and 33°C (23.5%). Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show low confidence in 41°C+ outliers (19%), citing ample soil moisture and neutral jet stream positioning that historically limit March spikes beyond 35°C in Uttar Pradesh. Final resolution hinges on IMD's verified airport readings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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