Trader consensus on Seoul's highest temperature on March 27 clusters tightly around 13-16°C, driven primarily by the Korea Meteorological Administration's latest ensemble forecasts projecting a peak of 14°C amid mild high-pressure influence, with ECMWF and GFS models varying by 1-2°C due to differing cloud cover simulations. Historical late-March highs average 12-13°C at Seoul's observatory, but urban heat island effects and southerly winds could push toward 15-16°C, as seen in recent analogs. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning minimizing cold advection and diurnal solar heating potential, though short-range uncertainty in boundary layer mixing keeps probabilities matched within 19% for 13°C. Upcoming hourly updates from KMA will refine these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Seul em 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Seul em 27 de março?
13°C 27%
15°C 18%
16°C ou mais 18%
14°C 16%
$13,563 Vol.
$13,563 Vol.
6°C ou menos
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
4%
10°C
2%
11°C
7%
12°C
12%
13°C
19%
14°C
16%
15°C
18%
16°C ou mais
18%
13°C 27%
15°C 18%
16°C ou mais 18%
14°C 16%
$13,563 Vol.
$13,563 Vol.
6°C ou menos
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
4%
10°C
2%
11°C
7%
12°C
12%
13°C
19%
14°C
16%
15°C
18%
16°C ou mais
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Seoul's highest temperature on March 27 clusters tightly around 13-16°C, driven primarily by the Korea Meteorological Administration's latest ensemble forecasts projecting a peak of 14°C amid mild high-pressure influence, with ECMWF and GFS models varying by 1-2°C due to differing cloud cover simulations. Historical late-March highs average 12-13°C at Seoul's observatory, but urban heat island effects and southerly winds could push toward 15-16°C, as seen in recent analogs. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning minimizing cold advection and diurnal solar heating potential, though short-range uncertainty in boundary layer mixing keeps probabilities matched within 19% for 13°C. Upcoming hourly updates from KMA will refine these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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