Trader consensus on Tokyo's March 27 high temperature clusters tightly around 17–18°C, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensemble forecasts indicating a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly airflow, with peaks near 17.5°C under partly cloudy skies. This edges out 16°C odds amid historical late-March norms of 13–15°C, boosted by above-average sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea fueling warmer advection. Differentiating factors include ECMWF's slightly cooler 16–17°C bias versus GFS's bullish 18–19°C runs, urban heat island amplification at central Tokyo stations, and low-confidence cloudiness risks that could shave 1–2°C; upcoming 12Z model updates may sharpen resolution as diurnal max hinges on afternoon insolation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Tóquio em 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Tóquio em 27 de março?
17°C 33%
18°C 20%
16°C 19%
19°C 16%
11°C ou menos
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C
19%
17°C
33%
18°C
20%
19°C
16%
20°C
6%
21°C ou mais
4%
17°C 33%
18°C 20%
16°C 19%
19°C 16%
11°C ou menos
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C
19%
17°C
33%
18°C
20%
19°C
16%
20°C
6%
21°C ou mais
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Tokyo's March 27 high temperature clusters tightly around 17–18°C, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensemble forecasts indicating a high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly airflow, with peaks near 17.5°C under partly cloudy skies. This edges out 16°C odds amid historical late-March norms of 13–15°C, boosted by above-average sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea fueling warmer advection. Differentiating factors include ECMWF's slightly cooler 16–17°C bias versus GFS's bullish 18–19°C runs, urban heat island amplification at central Tokyo stations, and low-confidence cloudiness risks that could shave 1–2°C; upcoming 12Z model updates may sharpen resolution as diurnal max hinges on afternoon insolation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions