Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects MetService's latest extended forecast, issued this morning, projecting a maximum temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 5 under mostly cloudy skies with a 60% chance of showers until evening and developing southeasterlies. This pins 18°C as the slim leader at 31.5% implied probability, edging out 19°C (24.5%) and 17°C (24.0%), due to ensemble model spread in global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS, where northerly airflow remnants could boost peaks to 19°C if showers clear early, while persistent cloud or stronger cooling winds cap at 17°C. NIWA's Hotspot Watch notes low confidence in a weakening front's evolution, heightening short-range uncertainty typical for autumnal frontal passages; watch evening MetService updates for refined guidance. Historical April highs average 17-18°C, aligning with current trader positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Wellington on April 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 5?
18°C 32%
19°C 27%
17°C 25%
16°C 11%
11°C ou menos
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
11%
17°C
25%
18°C
32%
19°C
27%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
5%
18°C 32%
19°C 27%
17°C 25%
16°C 11%
11°C ou menos
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
11%
17°C
25%
18°C
32%
19°C
27%
20°C
9%
21°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects MetService's latest extended forecast, issued this morning, projecting a maximum temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 5 under mostly cloudy skies with a 60% chance of showers until evening and developing southeasterlies. This pins 18°C as the slim leader at 31.5% implied probability, edging out 19°C (24.5%) and 17°C (24.0%), due to ensemble model spread in global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS, where northerly airflow remnants could boost peaks to 19°C if showers clear early, while persistent cloud or stronger cooling winds cap at 17°C. NIWA's Hotspot Watch notes low confidence in a weakening front's evolution, heightening short-range uncertainty typical for autumnal frontal passages; watch evening MetService updates for refined guidance. Historical April highs average 17-18°C, aligning with current trader positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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