Latest forecasts from Environment Canada and global models like ECMWF and GFS converge on a high of 11-13°C for Toronto on March 26, driving trader odds toward those outcomes, with 12°C leading at 22.4% amid a narrow ensemble spread of just 1-2°C. This mild spell—well above the late-March climatological normal of 7°C—stems from a persistent upper-level ridge funneling southerly winds and warmer air masses northward, though subtle differences in simulated cloud cover and frontal timing differentiate the outcomes: ECMWF leans cooler at 11°C with more overcast skies, while GFS favors 12-13°C under clearer conditions. Recent model runs show minimal shifts, but pre-dawn observations and any morning fog could tip the peak. Traders eye hourly updates for resolution.